By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces utilized naval drones to strike the oil tanker Dashan, identified as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea, causing critical damage and potentially disabling the vessel. This attack, carried out in coordination with the Ukrainian navy, marks the third such strike in two weeks, demonstrating a strategic shift toward targeting ships at sea alongside land-based energy infrastructure. The $30 million tanker, which was sailing with its transponder off, has been sanctioned by several Western countries and the EU for its role in Russian oil exports. This action is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to disrupt Russia’s energy revenue, a critical source of funds for its war efforts.
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Ukrainian Naval Drones Struck Third Tanker of Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’, and the implications are starting to ripple through the global energy market. It seems Ukraine’s strategy of using naval drones to target Russian assets in the Black Sea is bearing fruit, and not just in a symbolic way. Each successful strike is chipping away at Russia’s ability to fund its war machine, directly impacting its access to crucial revenue streams. The targeting of tankers, specifically, is a particularly effective tactic, as it hits at the heart of Russia’s ability to export its oil, a major source of income. This isn’t just about damaging a few ships; it’s about disrupting a whole system.
The “shadow fleet,” that collection of vessels Russia uses to circumvent international sanctions, is now feeling the heat. These tankers, often operating under obscure flags and with murky ownership, are a lifeline for Russia’s oil exports. Their existence allows Russia to continue selling oil, despite restrictions imposed by Western nations. However, the use of naval drones is changing the equation. The recent attacks are forcing these tankers to become far more cautious, potentially increasing insurance costs and slowing down the flow of oil. Each hit by a Ukrainian drone increases the risk associated with these shipments, making it a far more precarious and costly endeavor for the Russians.
Let’s consider the financial impact. A single tanker might be carrying around $75 million worth of oil per trip. Factor in the low prices Russia is likely forced to accept to sell its oil and other production and shipping costs, and it starts to make you wonder about the long-term viability of this operation. And now add the risk of complete destruction. The cost of a lost ship, the disruption to delivery schedules, the potential environmental damage—it all adds up.
If there’s even a small chance that a ship gets blown up, say a 1% probability, is it even worth the risk for Russia? That probability likely does not exist though, it is likely higher. It’s hard to imagine that these risks are being ignored. Perhaps there’s an element of “Russia being Russia,” that is, a willingness to accept higher losses for strategic gains. But even for Russia, the costs will eventually manifest themselves somewhere, in lower profits, higher insurance premiums, or ultimately, in the loss of capacity.
The lack of readily available replacement tankers is a critical factor here. Russia can’t just order more from Amazon. These are specialized ships that take time and money to build and acquire, if anyone would even sell them. So, each drone strike inflicts a cumulative and potentially crippling blow. The strikes also put pressure on the international insurance market, making it more difficult and expensive to insure these tankers, further reducing their economic viability.
The effectiveness of these drone strikes seems to be escalating, with dozens of vessels potentially being rendered ineffective. While the exact number of tankers affected is difficult to confirm, the overall trend is clear. Ukraine is successfully using drones to harass Russia’s oil export operations. This is a critical development in the war, placing increasing pressure on the Russian economy and its ability to fund the conflict. As the strikes continue, they should force Russia to weigh the costs and benefits of its oil trade, potentially leading to adjustments in strategy, increased risk aversion, or even a willingness to negotiate.
This type of action is vital for Ukraine’s long-term strategy, with the naval drones forcing Russia to reconsider the viability of its oil exports. The ability to attack Russia’s financial lifeline is essential, forcing the Kremlin to come to the table. As more and more of these strikes occur, the pressure mounts, and the financial consequences will become ever more difficult to ignore. As more ships are hit, the cost of doing business, the price of insurance, and the availability of ships all worsen. All of these factors combined begin to truly impact the Russian economy and their ability to continue their war.
While the exact number of drones needed is difficult to ascertain, it’s clear that these naval attacks, in tandem with land-based drone operations, are going to be critical for the foreseeable future. Each strike weakens Russia’s economic capacity, potentially forcing them to negotiate. The use of drones, both in the air and at sea, represents a significant asymmetric advantage for Ukraine, allowing it to strike at key Russian assets.