By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) successfully disabled a Russian Varshavianka-class submarine in Novorossiysk port using the underwater drone Sub Sea Baby. This submarine, capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles used in attacks against Ukraine, is now effectively out of service. The attack was a joint operation between the 13th Main department of counterintelligence of SBU and the Ukrainian Navy. The estimated cost of this type of submarine is around $400 million, with potential construction costs now reaching $500 million due to international sanctions.
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Ukraine’s attack disables Russian submarine in Novorossiysk port for first time since 2022, and this is a major turning point, much more than just another headline about a military strike. The fact that a Ukrainian underwater drone managed to disable a Russian Kilo-class submarine, nicknamed the “Black Hole,” within its home port is a significant paradigm shift. It means that Russia’s naval bases, even those on their own mainland, are no longer safe havens. They’ve already been pushed out of Crimea, and now even their fallback locations are vulnerable.
This vulnerability has serious implications for Russia’s ability to project power. The primary mission of submarines like the “Black Hole” is often to launch Kalibr cruise missiles. These missiles can reach deep into Ukraine and strike cities and infrastructure. By taking out a submarine in a protected port, Ukraine has effectively degraded Russia’s capacity to conduct these missile strikes. It forces Russia to rethink how and where it deploys its naval assets.
Thinking back, I find it quite amusing to reflect on the pre-war assessments of Russian military might. There was a time when the common perception was that Russia possessed the second most powerful military in the world. This attack, along with the consistent challenges faced by the Russian forces, really highlights how that perception was, at best, a vast overestimation.
The hypothetical phone call to Putin about this attack, as described in the input, paints a very vivid and telling picture. The general’s initial hesitance, the awkward explanation, the need to send video evidence… It underscores the severity of the situation and the likely disbelief at the top levels of the Russian command structure. The response, the invitation to a party, is a dark, cynical humor that only accentuates the humiliation and strategic impact of the event.
The ramifications of this attack, I believe, are being underestimated by many. The idea of underwater drones capable of disabling submarines in their ports is incredibly unsettling for any navy at sea. The fact that this attack happened in Novorossiysk, a relatively secure location on the Russian mainland, should send shivers down the spines of naval strategists globally.
The Ukrainian approach to this war is quite remarkable in this context. Rather than attempting a costly and time-consuming build-up of their own navy to directly challenge the Russian fleet, they’ve opted to methodically chip away at it. Ukraine has found ways to hit the Russian fleet, recognizing a core weakness: their vulnerability from both the surface and now, critically, from below.
The inherent weaknesses of the Russian Black Sea fleet are exposed. The condition of the ships, the impact of corruption, and overall incompetence within the fleet are now on full display for everyone to see. Their ships are essentially trapped in port, paralyzed by the fear of further Ukrainian attacks. This directly impacts their operational capability and their overall influence in the region. The perception of Russia’s naval strength is diminished, possibly dramatically.
This incident also brings the discussion of naval defenses to the forefront. While nets can be deployed to block the port, they restrict mobility, and may increase the risk of over-the-water drone strikes. But the underwater drone presents a different level of threat. It’s a cheap, easy-to-use technology that is extremely hard to defend against. They can lie in wait, undetected, under the cover of the sea, waiting for an opportunity. The fact that Ukraine pulled this off and is using low-cost technology is the most unsettling aspect of this incident.
It’s worth mentioning the potential for technological innovation. I was thinking of historical examples of underwater stealth and sabotage, such as the WW2 X-craft of the Royal Navy. The parallels are striking, demonstrating the timeless nature of underwater warfare. Modern drones are simply a much more advanced version of these historical tactics. They underscore a shift in naval strategy.
The broader implications are that the Russian military, once seen as a formidable adversary, has revealed a series of profound vulnerabilities, and the attack on the submarine is only a stark reminder. This is why it’s hard to believe this was a major military power in the first place, or rather, why experts were so easily swayed by propaganda, which created the misconception.
Ultimately, the Ukrainian attack on the Russian submarine in Novorossiysk is more than just a single strike. It’s a defining moment. It underscores the vulnerabilities of the Russian military. The attack highlights how a smaller, innovative force can effectively disrupt the operations of a larger, established military, changing the balance of power in the Black Sea and beyond.