By John Q. Hosedrinker 
During a meeting of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, Director-General of the National Security Bureau (NSB) Tsai Ming-yen stated that Russia could offer military logistics support to China and engage in provocations in the Indo-Pacific region if China were to attack Taiwan, potentially complicating responses from the United States and its allies. The NSB is actively monitoring China-Russia military cooperation through international intelligence exchanges and has addressed Indo-Pacific security issues in nearly 100 formal bilateral meetings with 45 countries this year. Defense Minister Wellington Koo noted China’s strong dissatisfaction over Japanese remarks regarding a “Taiwan contingency,” further indicating the complex geopolitical dynamics. Additionally, the recent joint China-Russia aerial patrol sends a clear message of their cooperative relationship.
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Russia could support China attack on Taiwan: Taiwan security chief. This is the crux of the matter, and it’s a chilling thought. We’re talking about a scenario where two major powers, already facing considerable global scrutiny, might join forces in a potentially devastating act. The initial reaction might be skepticism, given Russia’s current struggles in Ukraine. It’s a valid point: Russia seems to be stretched thin, barely able to manage its own military operations, let alone project power across the Pacific. But let’s delve deeper, because the situation is far more nuanced than it appears at first glance.
First off, Russia’s support wouldn’t necessarily be about sending tanks and troops. Their contributions would likely be more subtle, more strategic. Think about it: they’ve been gaining experience in drone warfare in Ukraine. Could they share that knowledge with China? Absolutely. They also have missile and anti-aircraft technology that China doesn’t fully possess. This kind of tech transfer could be a significant boost for China.
Then there’s the propaganda aspect. Russia has mastered the art of spreading disinformation and sowing discord. They’ve been incredibly effective at influencing public opinion in the West, and could use this skill to muddy the waters, confuse the public and try and prevent other nations from aiding Taiwan. While the world’s attention is on Ukraine, that’s almost a perfect environment for Russia to support China, the situation is the perfect environment for these two to work together.
Of course, we can’t ignore the economic aspect. If China were to launch an attack on Taiwan, the U.S. and its allies would likely impose severe economic sanctions. China is heavily dependent on imports, particularly for food and energy. Russia, on the other hand, has vast resources, including oil and grain. Russia could become a lifeline, providing China with essential supplies and keeping its economy afloat. Russia can also play a major logistical role in getting supplies to China. This is a crucial element.
Military assistance would likely take the form of helping with training, equipment, as well as supplying soldiers. Drone technology, the shared strategic goal of weakening the West, as well as a great number of Chinese resources would be very useful. This means China could also provide assistance to Russia. North Korea could provide troops for China and provide Russia with more manpower, with all sides taking on very clear and vital roles.
Now, let’s consider the broader geopolitical implications. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a huge deal. It would shake up the global order and put the U.S. in a tough spot. Russia, by supporting China, would be aligning itself against the West and potentially gaining leverage in a new world order. However, given how closely tied to the U.S. the financial systems of Europe and many other nations are, there is good reason to think that it is more likely that Russia will turn on China.
There’s also the question of what China truly needs from Russia. China doesn’t necessarily need Russia to conquer Taiwan militarily. They already possess the military capabilities to do so. What China truly desires is that Russia uses its influence to keep the West off of China’s back. While China would most certainly find Russia’s contributions extremely helpful, its main goal is to be supported.
Let’s not forget that Russia’s Pacific fleet, though not entirely unscathed, remains largely intact. They could be used to distract, harass, or tie up resources, making it harder for other nations to intervene. This alone makes Russia a useful partner in this situation. It is also important to remember that Russia is aligned with China on the UN Security Council, and Russia’s vote is one that China desperately needs.
So, while Russia’s ability to wage a full-scale war is questionable, their capacity to support China in a more subtle, strategic way is very real. It’s a combination of technology, logistics, propaganda, and economic assistance. These are all areas where Russia could make a significant difference.
This is a very complex and ever-changing situation. The idea of Russia supporting China’s actions against Taiwan may be intended to garner more support for Taiwan, and is a possibility that is not fully clear. One thing is certain: we need to be clear-eyed about the potential for cooperation between Russia and China. It’s a partnership that could have very dangerous consequences.