By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Secretary General Mark Rutte has cautioned that the world could be facing its most perilous period since World War II, fueled by aggressive actions from both Russia and China. He highlighted the potential for Beijing to escalate conflict in Europe should it take military action in Taiwan, creating a global security crisis. NATO is fortifying its defenses through measures such as bolstering Ukraine’s military and establishing a “coalition of the willing” while also calling for increased defense spending among European nations. The Alliance emphasizes readiness across all domains—land, sea, and air—particularly in the strategically important Arctic and North Atlantic regions, should a coordinated attack occur.
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NATO chief Rutte: China and Russia Could Launch Simultaneous Attacks on Taiwan and Europe
The specter of simultaneous attacks, as suggested, certainly grabs your attention. The idea of China and Russia coordinating their efforts to strike Taiwan and Europe, respectively, is a scenario that raises serious concerns. However, the reality on the ground, the current state of affairs, presents a much more nuanced picture, one that makes this worst-case scenario feel, frankly, less likely.
We need to consider that the Russian military is struggling in Ukraine. Putin’s “three-day special operation” has dragged on for over a thousand days. While Russia still wields a significant arsenal of drones and missiles, their capabilities beyond that seem limited. The fear of a Russian attack in Europe may be more potent than the actual threat itself. The suggestion of a coordinated attack feels less probable, given Russia’s current strategic situation.
China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan are a known factor. However, the economic implications of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan are enormous. Taiwan is an economic powerhouse and a key player in the global economy. China knows this, which makes a reckless military move highly improbable. It’s tough to imagine China wanting to trigger a massive economic crash by going to war, especially when they’ve been strategically courting Europe as a stable business partner. The Chinese leadership is unlikely to throw away all the gains they’ve worked so hard for.
Moreover, while a partnership exists between China and Russia, it’s not a relationship built on unwavering trust. It seems more like a temporary alliance. China’s long-term interests may not perfectly align with Russia’s goals. The possibility of China seeing an opportunity to expand its influence at Russia’s expense, in the long run, is not out of the question.
The West, especially the United States, needs to be a dependable ally. The idea of the U.S. being perceived as unreliable only encourages these dangerous scenarios. The U.S. has always been ready to defend its allies. If the world sees the U.S. as weak or unreliable, then it leaves a vacuum. Without a strong, reliable ally in the U.S., there is a greater chance of Russia attacking.
The military balance in Europe also needs to be factored in. European nations collectively possess substantial military capabilities. Russia would face a tough fight against a united Europe, especially considering the extensive air power at Europe’s disposal. It’s difficult to see how Russia could mount a successful military campaign against Europe, particularly in light of its difficulties in Ukraine.
It is worth noting that China is already facing sanctions from the U.S. The last thing it wants is to further its isolation. This would only harm its goals. An invasion of Taiwan would likely lead to severe economic consequences. China is likely aware of the potential for the U.S. to focus its efforts and resources elsewhere.
While China’s current strategy involves applying pressure, it is doing so without launching a full-scale invasion.
The possibility of such a coordinated attack does exist. The reality is far more complex. While it’s important to be prepared for all eventualities, we should carefully analyze the strategic, economic, and military factors at play. The likelihood of a simultaneous attack is likely less than what one might initially believe.