By Matt Underwood Russia preparing to occupy Baltic states by 2027 – Budanov. That’s a pretty heavy statement, isn’t it? The core idea, as it seems, is that Russia, under Putin’s leadership, is planning on a move to occupy the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – potentially within the next three years. This isn’t just idle speculation, apparently; it’s the assessment of someone in a position to know: the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
Now, before we get too far into this, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room: Russia’s performance in Ukraine. They’ve been bogged down for years, struggling to achieve their objectives, and the cost has been staggering. The Ukrainian war has taken a massive toll on their equipment, manpower, and overall military capabilities. So, the question naturally arises: how could they possibly consider another front?
The underlying thought process seems to center on several key factors. First, there’s the perception – or perhaps the hope – that a potential future US President might be less inclined to defend the Baltics militarily. This, they might figure, creates a window of opportunity. Second, the idea might be that by creating a second front, the West would spread its resources thin, potentially weakening the support for Ukraine. It is also important to note the Russian propaganda to undermine the support for Ukraine and undermine European partnerships. However, these are strategic choices that come with significant risks.
The truth is, such an undertaking would be incredibly difficult. The Baltic states are members of NATO, which means an attack on them would trigger a collective defense response. Russia would be facing not just the Baltics, but the combined might of NATO, including the US (hopefully) and other powerful nations like Germany, Poland, and France. A conventional war against NATO would likely be a disaster for Russia, and the Nordics would probably support the Baltic states as well.
Consider the current state of Russia’s military. They’ve already lost a huge amount of equipment and manpower in Ukraine. Their remaining forces are said to be equipped with older vehicles and their current forces are given minimal training. Their navy and air force have been redeployed to fight as infantry in Ukraine. The morale is down, and leaders are falling out of windows. Russia has a huge population, yes, but it may not be in the best shape.
There’s also the question of resources. Russia’s economy is under significant strain, and its ability to sustain a long-term conflict is questionable. They’re struggling to hold territory in Ukraine, and the idea of opening another front, especially against a stronger adversary, seems, well, incredibly risky, almost suicidal.
The potential for such a scenario is being wargamed by NATO and has been for a while. The military is ready to defend the Baltic states. Some people believe that Russia is delusional and that the war is based on a fantasy.
So, what about the other potential scenarios? One scenario is that, like Ukraine, Russia doesn’t use the manpower or resources to do jack shit. They have lost the war already and do not have the ability to invade the Baltics. On the other hand, Russia doesn’t have the willingness to go to war, but the US and its allies won’t allow Russia to invade a NATO country.
The situation is incredibly complex. The potential for miscalculation, escalation, and unforeseen consequences is immense.
One thing is certain: the situation requires constant vigilance, preparedness, and a clear understanding of the risks involved. Russia has had a very difficult time in Ukraine; therefore, the move is less likely, but not impossible. The only way to stop Putin is to get rid of Putin. The Baltic states have been preparing for this situation for decades and have shown their military prowess. Russia is running out of options.