By Matt Underwood Frontline report: Russian drone incursions push Turkey to the brink of closing Black Sea shipping routes. The situation in the Black Sea is heating up, and it’s easy to get lost in the speculation. The crux of the matter is that repeated Russian drone incursions into Turkish airspace are putting significant pressure on Ankara. It is as though the Russians are playing a dangerous game, testing the waters, and pushing boundaries.
These aren’t just isolated incidents. They represent a pattern of behavior that has the potential to escalate. We’re talking about a situation where Russia seems to be continually probing the limits of what it can get away with. Some are even suggesting that the Russian general staff might be operating under the influence or are intentionally taking risks, but it is more likely they are just arrogant, a mistake easily made by any country that has gone unpunished for decades. The potential consequences of these actions are quite concerning, especially if the incidents start to cause casualties, and Turkey has a strong reaction, and they could have a strong reaction, which would send shockwaves through the region.
Turkey has the legal right, under the Montreux Convention, to close the Bosphorus Strait to vessels of countries at war with them. While a declaration of war with Russia is unlikely, there is a distinct possibility of sanctions, but those also would not solve the problem. The constant incursion of Russian drones, even if unarmed, creates a threat. It is one thing to see the occasional incident, but a repeated pattern changes the situation significantly. Russia is pushing the envelope and is showing that they have no fear of any international body’s rebuke.
Some suggest that the best course of action is a firm response to the incidents. Waiting, as some diplomats seem to be doing, is perceived by some as the wrong answer. Russia may interpret this as a sign of weakness, and could further encourage the aggression. While shooting down drones might provide useful data, the need to avoid escalation is also an important factor. Diplomatic measures and sanctions remain the favored approach, especially in the short term. However, the Turkish government must consider more drastic measures if these incursions persist and pose a threat.
The potential for escalation is obvious. If a Russian drone were to cause damage, or worse, cause casualties, there would be tremendous pressure on Turkey to retaliate. The fact that the Montreux Convention allows Turkey to close the straits during times of war is an important aspect of this discussion. However, it’s a double-edged sword: a declaration of war could be a very expensive option for all parties.
The situation is further complicated by the use of “flags of convenience,” making it more difficult to identify the true origin of vessels. There is also discussion about the real possibility of merchant ships secretly being used to launch attacks. The legal framework of the Montreux Convention, as well as the current geopolitical climate, make this a very fluid and challenging environment.
It is worth noting that there is a perception that Russia is constantly testing boundaries. The “accidental” bombings near NATO countries are seen as examples of this. This behavior can wear down resolve. The fact that Russia is still launching these incursions despite any perceived warnings means that something may have to be done.
What is happening in the Black Sea is a complex mix of legal restrictions, political posturing, and potential for military escalation. Russia’s actions are testing the resolve of Turkey, a NATO member. The situation is precarious, and a misstep could lead to a significant crisis. Closing the shipping routes is an option, a drastic option, but one that is very much on the table, if the intrusions become more frequent, or more serious.