By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In an interview with Tass news agency, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia would support China in a Taiwan contingency, citing a treaty with China that promotes mutual support in defending national unity and territorial integrity. He also expressed concern over Japan’s increasing militarization, referencing rising defense spending under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Lavrov’s comments followed Takaichi’s remarks that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. He urged Japan to carefully consider the potential consequences of its actions as it pursues militarization.
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Russia vows to support China if a Taiwan contingency flares up, a statement that immediately raises eyebrows and sparks a flurry of speculation. It’s impossible to ignore the context: Russia, deeply embroiled in its war against Ukraine, is heavily reliant on China for economic and perhaps even military support. This creates a clear power dynamic, where Russia is very much the junior partner.
Given this reality, Russia’s pledge of support appears more like a strategic play to maintain favor with China. The implication is that, in a potential conflict over Taiwan, Moscow would stand with Beijing. This is a significant statement, painting a picture of a united front against perceived Western interests. The question of “how” Russia would provide this support is a critical one, considering their own military limitations and reliance on China. It’s difficult to envision Russia providing much beyond diplomatic backing and perhaps some economic measures.
The move also seems to highlight a developing “axis of evil” of sorts, further raising concerns about global stability. It reinforces the notion that Russia and China share a common desire to challenge the existing world order. The question arises about where this leaves the United States and its allies, and how this new partnership will evolve and what it’s long-term impacts will be. The fact that the US has, in some ways, diminished its global authority adds to the potential complexity.
There is a sense that both Russia and China have territorial ambitions, with each holding claims on lands currently under the control of other nations. This shared perspective might strengthen their alliance. However, it’s difficult to see how Russia could provide any meaningful assistance in a Taiwan conflict given their own ongoing military struggles in Ukraine. They’re struggling to equip their own troops with basic supplies, and their military capabilities are stretched thin.
Of course, the promise also creates a diplomatic balancing act for Russia. By pledging support to China, they risk alienating the West further. The situation could inadvertently strengthen US support for Ukraine, making the war even more expensive for the Kremlin. It’s a calculated risk, but one that reflects Russia’s dependence on China.
Some sources are skeptical of how much value Russia’s support would actually bring. Given Russia’s weakened military and economic position, they’re hardly in a position to offer significant material aid. The Kremlin’s ability to project power globally has been severely diminished by the war. Perhaps it boils down to something more symbolic – a display of solidarity aimed at deterring the United States from intervening in a potential Taiwan conflict.
The declaration can also be perceived as a reflection of how the world has shifted. The United States needs to reconsider its posture and reassess its existing alliances. This move also highlights the potential for multiple conflicts to erupt simultaneously, creating a complex and potentially dangerous global landscape. Some sources see the current situation as a series of separate, localized conflicts that could eventually coalesce into a larger, more widespread war.
Essentially, Russia’s commitment boils down to a case of supporting “our war crimes, and we’ll support yours.” It signifies a deepening of the partnership between Russia and China, raising the stakes and potentially creating new challenges for international diplomacy and security. It is a sign of desperation from Moscow, willing to sacrifice any pretense of legitimacy to cling to power.