By Matt Underwood Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find, and the news has a definite weight to it, doesn’t it? The core of the matter centers on the potential deployment of these new, nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at an old airbase in eastern Belarus. This isn’t just about putting more hardware on a map; it’s about reshaping the balance of power, especially considering the implications for European security. And, well, let’s be honest, the word “hypersonic” itself often feels like a bit of a loaded buzzword, right?
The researchers, Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth, have zeroed in on the deployment, basing their assessment on satellite imagery from Planet Labs. Their confidence level is pretty high too, estimating a 90% certainty that mobile Oreshnik launchers are heading to the former airbase near Krichev. If this pans out, it means those missiles are now positioned much closer to potential targets across Europe, effectively extending Russia’s reach and, more importantly, its deterrence capabilities. Think of it: the closer these weapons are to their intended targets, the less time there is for any sort of response or interception. It’s a strategic move, no doubt about it.
It’s worth noting what kind of missile we are actually talking about here. The Oreshnik, also known as the Hazel tree, is a ballistic missile. While it travels at hypersonic speeds, which simply means over Mach 5, some experts believe that its technology is not entirely new. It is essentially an application of older technologies brought together in a new way. The Russian’s military capability is in the application of the technology, not its novelty. So, it’s not quite the game-changer some might imagine, but it certainly has its implications. The fact that Russia is stationing nuclear weapons outside its territory for the first time since the Cold War underscores a shift in their strategic thinking.
This move should also be seen within the broader context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Experts suggest that the deployment of the Oreshnik is part of a revised strategy, sending a strong political message regarding its increasing reliance on nuclear weapons. It’s about influencing the actions of NATO countries, discouraging them from providing extensive military aid to Kyiv. The situation becomes even more complicated with the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty rapidly approaching. This deployment definitely adds another layer of complexity to an already tense situation.
The U.S. response, and indeed the White House’s, is something we should keep an eye on. As of the report, there’s been no immediate comment. The same goes for the Russian Embassy and the Belarusian government, with state-run news outlets quoting the Defense Minister stating that the deployment wouldn’t alter the balance of power. It’s safe to say there are many conflicting reactions to this military expansion. The lack of a response, however, can also speak volumes.
Now, let’s also not forget the other side of this. Any deployment in Belarus instantly makes Belarus a target as well. The question of whether Ukraine might respond in kind, perhaps by stationing its own missiles and drones closer to Russia, adds another layer of tension to this geopolitical chess game. Nobody wants a full-blown escalation.
Regarding the “hypersonic” label, it’s easy to get lost in the jargon. While it sounds incredibly advanced, the term itself is quite broad and just refers to speed. A true hypersonic missile, ideally, would behave more like a cruise missile with enhanced maneuvering capabilities, making it harder to intercept. With that in mind, the Oreshnik is not that. In the end, the impact will be based on how it is used, and the political message it sends.