By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Recent polling indicates waning support among even staunch Trump supporters for a third presidential term in 2028, despite the idea gaining traction among some Republicans and Trump’s former advisors. While the 22nd Amendment legally prevents this, this shift suggests a loosening grip on the Republican party. Trump himself has seemingly lost enthusiasm for the idea. Furthermore, negative approval ratings and economic concerns are contributing to this shift, potentially impacting the 2026 midterm elections.
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Polls, while offering a snapshot of public sentiment, often paint a complex picture, and this instance is no exception. The notion that even MAGA voters, the staunch supporters of Donald Trump, are starting to sour on the idea of him returning to the White House is intriguing, though perhaps not as straightforward as initial headlines might suggest. The available data presents a nuanced view, hinting at a potential shift, but also highlighting the enduring loyalty that characterizes a significant portion of the base.
The central point here, stemming from a recent Economist/YouGov poll, indicates that a considerable percentage of those who backed Trump in the 2024 election express reservations about him running again in 2028. Specifically, 45 percent of these voters oppose a third term for the former president. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the counterpoint: a significant 43 percent *still* support the idea. This isn’t a landslide departure; it’s more like a subtle tremor within a firmly established foundation. The fact that the poll was addressing a hypothetical—a third term that is constitutionally impossible—does complicate the interpretation. This suggests it may not reflect the desire to “dump Trump” but simply the acknowledgement that the constitution prohibits him from running again.
The skepticism surrounding the narrative of a mass exodus from Trump is understandable. The MAGA movement is often characterized by a strong sense of identity and a fervent devotion to the former president. The core principle for many of these voters, it seems, is still, “owning the libs”. This unwavering focus on the opposition suggests a level of dedication that transcends specific policy outcomes or personal grievances. Many believe the MAGA supporters will always vote for Trump, even if they have some disagreements with his actions. And the fact that they will likely be voting again means some of them will be willing to shift to the next candidate who promises to take down the libs.
Economic factors appear to be playing a significant role in this potential recalibration. Many Trump supporters are now blaming him for the cost-of-living crisis. This is a common refrain in current political discourse, as high prices affect most people. This discontent is something Democrats are seizing upon, focusing their messaging on the issue of affordability. It’s a pragmatic shift, tapping into the economic anxieties of a voter base that might otherwise remain steadfastly loyal.
The reality, as always, is far more complex than a simple “dump Trump” narrative. While a segment of the MAGA base may be experiencing buyer’s remorse, others remain firmly entrenched. The next election cycle will inevitably pit Trump against another candidate. So, the question remains. If they can’t run again, will MAGA voters dump Trump for the next candidate or even another party? Only time will tell if the current rumblings translate into a genuine shift in allegiance or if the core MAGA voter remains unwavering, even in the face of economic hardship and a desire for a new leader.