By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Contrary to initial concerns, New York City’s luxury real estate market is booming, defying predictions of an exodus of wealthy residents. Signed contracts for Manhattan homes over $4 million saw significant increases in November, according to data from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. This surge in high-end sales contradicts the narrative of wealthy individuals fleeing due to the potential election of a socialist mayor, as indicated by real estate leaders. Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel, cites strong Wall Street bonuses as a reason for wealthy buyers to come to or stay in New York.
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‘There is no Mamdani effect’: Manhattan luxury home sales surge after mayoral election, undercutting predictions of doom and escape to Florida
So, it seems the predictions of a mass exodus of wealthy New Yorkers to the sun-soaked shores of Florida, triggered by the recent mayoral election, are, shall we say, a bit off the mark. Luxury home sales in Manhattan are actually surging. This directly contradicts the narrative that a shift in political winds would send the rich packing. Turns out, the “Mamdani effect,” or whatever doomsday scenario was conjured up, isn’t quite the reality.
Predictable, right? The whole “everyone’s fleeing” trope is an oldie but a goodie, and it’s about as reliable as a leaky umbrella in a hurricane. Boston, for instance, increased taxes on the wealthy and is doing just fine. The truth? Wealthy individuals rarely uproot their lives over something as comparatively inconsequential as a tax hike. They adapt. The daily experience of a person with $500 million versus $500 billion? Not drastically different.
The real impact of policy changes often resonates with the middle and working classes. A family going from a $60,000 to a $200,000 annual income? That’s a life-altering transformation. A stronger middle class benefits everyone, creating a more vibrant economy and a more appealing city. But it seems some can’t wrap their heads around that simple concept.
Let’s be clear: the wealthy often bluff. And when called on it, they fold. Remember all those dire warnings of a Manhattan real estate crash? Apparently, the “information” wasn’t as solid as it seemed. Meanwhile, places like Florida and Texas, despite their best efforts to transform into business hubs, haven’t quite reached that level of financial dominance. NYC is NYC, and California is California, the financial and tech capitals, respectively. The super wealthy want to be where the money is, and it’s not the Sun Belt.
It’s amazing how often conservative hysteria fails to align with reality. The idea that businesses will pack up and leave to avoid taxes is a fallacy. Cutting off a massive consumer market of nearly 400 million people isn’t a smart business move. It is far more likely they will grumble, then adjust, and stay put.
Think about the cultural cachet of a city like New York. Florida can’t compete with that. The lifestyle, the access, the very energy of the place draws and holds the wealthy. It’s why even figures like Cuomo, for all their wealth, aren’t exactly rushing to abandon the city. They know what they’ve got.
So, the “Mamdani effect,” if it exists at all, seems to be a positive one: luxury home sales are surging. The wealthy, it seems, value the benefits of their lifestyle far more than they fear a tax increase. Perhaps, they’re simply relieved a particular “sex pest” didn’t win the election.
The narrative of wealthy individuals fleeing is a consistent one, and it’s almost always a bad-faith argument. As much as the wealthy want you to believe they’ll leave, it’s not that simple. Most will stay, cry, be bitter, and get over it. The Laffer curve, which postulates that tax increases inevitably lead to less revenue, may actually be wrong in this scenario. Higher taxes on the rich can lead to a revitalization of areas that have become harder to invest in, thanks to the support system for their businesses.
Perhaps the reason for the resurgence is the receding tide of globalization. Wealthy Americans may need to rely on their surroundings to make money or risk moving to less favorable tax codes. Those who were going to move to Florida for tax reasons were probably already there, or at least had a place. You can own multiple properties, after all.
The bottom line? The media loves to fear-monger. It seems that baseless fear-mongering is, well, baseless. And let’s be honest: Florida has problems, like canceled homeowners insurance. It’s almost as if policies that improve quality of life and increase property values make a city more desirable. Who would have guessed?