By Matt Underwood Iran’s currency collapse sparks second day of protests, and the situation feels like a pressure cooker on the verge of exploding. The plummeting value of the Iranian rial against the dollar is making life increasingly difficult for ordinary citizens, triggering public demonstrations. This isn’t just about economic hardship; it’s a symptom of deeper structural problems, including corruption, inequality, and a severe water crisis, all of which have been brewing for some time. The question on everyone’s mind seems to be whether these protests will finally lead to meaningful change in Iran.
The precipitous decline of the rial is staggering. It’s difficult to fathom the speed at which the currency has lost value, effectively turning many Iranians into overnight “trillionaires” in their own currency, yet leaving them unable to afford basic necessities. This dramatic devaluation reflects a fundamental lack of financial and economic acumen within the current regime. There’s a widespread feeling that the leadership is out of touch and ill-equipped to handle the crisis. The economic strain is particularly poignant when you consider the country’s potential. Iran could have thrived as a major gas supplier to Europe, but instead, it seems mired in internal struggles.
The protests, however, are met with the very real prospect of a harsh crackdown. The regime has a long history of brutally suppressing dissent, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is well-versed in quashing any opposition. Armed revolution, while perhaps the only path to true change, is a daunting prospect, especially given the IRGC’s military capabilities. The potential for the situation to escalate into a violent confrontation, or even a sectarian civil war, is a major concern. The sad history of the region suggests that a hard crackdown by the regime is the more probable outcome.
This latest unrest comes amid a shifting geopolitical landscape. Iran’s influence in the region, once seemingly dominant with proxy forces throughout the Middle East, appears to be waning. The weakening of its allies, the unraveling of its air defense systems, and the loss of senior IRGC leadership, coupled with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have created vulnerabilities that the Iranian regime hasn’t faced before. This moment in time feels different, even though there have been many prior waves of protests. There are multiple historical precedents, from student uprisings to the Green Movement and the Woman, Life, Freedom protests, but none have yet sparked the systemic change that many desire.
The regime’s control of oil, Iran’s most valuable resource, gives it significant leverage. As long as the government maintains control of both oil and the military, it can potentially weather public unrest. This dynamic changes, however, when even the IRGC’s paychecks become worthless. The military might not be getting paid, and that could threaten the regime. The regime won’t go down easily; the ayatollah and the loyalists will fight. While the IRGC is still receiving payment and the regime will leverage the entire economy for any foreign loans, before they miss paying the revolutionary guard. This would be a desperate move, and a reflection of the deep-seated instability.
It’s tempting to think that this time could be different. The regime’s traditional allies are faltering, and it faces unprecedented internal challenges. There’s a palpable sense that the regime is weaker than it has been in decades. This situation may lead to a point of no return. Yet, the history of the region is a somber reminder of the difficulties that lie ahead. The hope is that the Iranian people will ultimately determine their future, but the immediate path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Western media coverage, or lack thereof, may indirectly benefit the regime, which is a concern. The situation is complex, and the potential outcomes range from renewed repression to genuine transformation, with the former being the more likely outcome.