By John Q. Hosedrinker 
China’s Eastern Theater Command initiated a military exercise, “Justice Mission 2025,” encompassing areas around Taiwan, involving army, navy, air force, and rocket forces. The drills aim to enhance joint combat capabilities, simulating patrols, blockades, and establishing deterrence, while also practicing joint strike operations. This exercise is perceived as a warning against Taiwan’s independence and a move to assert control, occurring within five designated zones with sea and airspace restrictions. Taiwan’s Presidential Office condemned the exercise, criticizing its destabilizing impact on the region and urging China to exercise restraint.
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China launches large-scale military exercise around Taiwan – and it’s hard not to feel a sense of déjà vu. Military “exercises” near Taiwan have become a somewhat regular occurrence, haven’t they? It’s as though we’re watching a movie we’ve seen before, waiting for the inevitable climax. The timing of these events, however, always seems to coincide with delicate global situations, adding an extra layer of tension. Right now, there’s no denying it’s a bit unsettling, especially when you consider the economic implications. The world’s chip supply chain, largely centered in Taiwan, is a critical piece of the global economy. Any disruption to that, whether through a blockade or something more, would be felt everywhere.
The constant repetition of these exercises begs the question: is it all just a show of force, a test of resolve, or something more? The sentiment seems to be that China is testing the waters, probing for weaknesses, and keeping the world off guard. This is especially alarming since they’ve been sending all of the wrong signals. It’s a dangerous game of signaling and brinkmanship, and frankly, it’s hard to tell what the true intentions are. Some speculate that these exercises are designed to normalize the idea of a potential invasion, desensitizing the world to the idea.
The potential for a real invasion is a very scary thought, and the current global political landscape seems to add more fuel to the fire. Any aggression could have a massive impact, far beyond the immediate region. Considering the global power dynamics at play, the situation gets even more complex. It’s difficult to predict how the United States would respond, especially considering the U.S. seems like they are threatening their allies.
The economic implications are enormous. Taiwan’s TSMC is a central pillar of the global chip market. To disrupt that is to disrupt the world. The world is relying on those chips, and those chips are relying on Taiwan. To what degree the political establishment knows that is unclear.
The parallels between the situation in Ukraine and the current situation in Taiwan cannot be ignored. The actions of China, if they were to invade, would set a dangerous precedent. It would change the rules about seizing territory by military invasion. And that is why the whole world is watching.
The rhetoric coming from certain quarters further complicates things. Public comments, interpreted in certain ways, can be seen as an open invitation. Those in China might take the words at face value. They might point to those statements and say, “The world won’t object to what we do.” It’s an unsettling thought, and one that adds a layer of uncertainty to the situation.
The fact is, China is watching how the world reacts. The best opportunity for China, many believe, is now. In that setting, China would see the best chance for a US non-response. This is not good.
The potential for a full-scale invasion is very real, but so too is the possibility that it is all a bluff. China’s actions, whether they’re genuine or not, are creating an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty. The world watches and waits, hoping for a peaceful resolution, but preparing for the worst.