By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Recent reports from the Swedish navy indicate armed personnel in uniform have been observed on vessels associated with Russia’s shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea. According to Commodore Marko Petkovic, these individuals are likely employed by private security companies. Russia’s naval presence in the region is increasingly permanent and visible, with warships regularly patrolling strategic areas. The Russian navy appears to be supporting the shadow fleet’s operations in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland.
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Armed personnel in uniform have been spotted aboard vessels linked to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” Sweden’s navy said, and this certainly raises a lot of eyebrows. It’s hard not to immediately think about potential implications, especially considering the current geopolitical climate and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These are not just any vessels; they are part of a fleet shrouded in secrecy, reportedly used to transport Russian oil and potentially bypass sanctions. The presence of armed individuals, especially in uniform, immediately elevates the stakes and demands closer scrutiny.
The first question that pops up is, why? Why are armed personnel in uniform present on these vessels? Are they there for legitimate security, such as anti-piracy measures, or is there something more? It’s worth noting that the head of operations for Sweden’s navy mentioned that these individuals were likely employees of private security companies. While this offers one potential explanation, it also prompts further questions. Why would these security personnel, if unaffiliated with Russia, be present on vessels linked to a specific, and potentially sanctioned, entity? The situation becomes even more intriguing when considering the possible routes these ships are taking.
Transiting through areas like the High Risk Area (HRA) zone or the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the risk of maritime incidents is significant, often warrants heightened security. However, the use of armed personnel on these vessels, especially those navigating through critical waterways like the Great Belt/Sound Strait, the Dardanelles/Bosporus Strait, or even the Kiel Canal, becomes a more complex issue. It raises questions about potential breaches of maritime regulations and the possibility of hostile activities. The role of these individuals could range from guarding against piracy to, potentially, acting as deterrents against those who might seek to interfere with the ships’ operations.
The mention of the “shadow fleet” itself is quite revealing. It suggests a clandestine operation, one that likely aims to remain under the radar. The very nature of this shadow fleet implies activities that may be contrary to international norms and sanctions. The presence of armed guards adds another layer of complexity to the overall picture, suggesting a need for protection, possibly from both external threats and, perhaps, internal ones.
One thing that comes to mind is the possibility of these vessels carrying something more than just oil or LNG. While no definitive information on this front is available, the secrecy surrounding the shadow fleet sparks the imagination. It’s difficult not to wonder if these ships might be carrying other materials, perhaps even ones that are considered “WMD” (weapons of mass destruction) or are involved in other illicit activities.
It’s easy to understand that the Kremlin’s resources, including the shadow fleet, are finite, and the presence of armed personnel in uniform on these vessels might be a clear sign of growing concerns. This is a far cry from a signal that “Putin is done”, but rather an indication that things are becoming more difficult to manage. With fewer resources and potentially strained recruitment efforts, every element becomes a factor, adding to the pressure of the situation. This could extend to the increased necessity to safeguard resources, or to the presence of potential targets of those who are against the regime.
When it comes to potential threats, we’re left to wonder who would have the motive, and the capability, to target these vessels. While it’s certainly not a given, one obvious candidate that emerges is Ukraine. Given the nature of the war and the impact of Russian oil and LNG on the conflict, there’s a real argument that these shadow Russian oil tankers could be legitimate targets under international law.
However, the question of international legality remains open. Whether an attack on a shadow Russian oil tanker would be deemed a legitimate military action or a war crime is a crucial point that international lawyers will need to consider. The issue becomes even more nuanced when we contemplate the types of weaponry that might be used, such as Ukrainian drones. This brings us back to the role of the armed personnel in uniform aboard these vessels and suggests that their function may be one of deterrence and security rather than a simple anti-piracy measure.
It’s also important to consider the logistics of these security operations. Private Military Companies (PMCs) frequently provide security for merchant ships, but their methods of embarkation and disembarkation need to consider specific international waters to avoid legal issues. So, it raises the question of where they’re meeting up with these vessels and how this is all being managed.