By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Following the targeting of Russia’s largest oil firms, a US group, Dekleptocracy, has identified crucial, yet obscure, sanctions that could disrupt Russia’s war effort. These sanctions focus on chemicals used in mechanical lubricants and military-grade tires, areas where Russia lacks domestic production capabilities. Xinxiang Richful, a Chinese company, is a key supplier of lubricant additives and should be blocked. This action, along with targeting other suppliers, would create shortages.
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West is ‘missing obscure sanctions that could set back Russia’s war machine’, according to civil society groups, and this presents a fascinating conundrum. The core idea is that there are specific, lesser-known sanctions that, if implemented, could significantly hamper Russia’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. These aren’t the headline-grabbing sanctions, but rather the targeted ones that could, in theory, create real pinch points in Russia’s supply chain.
The crux of the matter revolves around strategic vulnerabilities. Consider the supply of mechanical lubricants. One group found that a single Chinese company, Xinxiang Richful, currently provides a substantial amount of these lubricants to Russia. This company, which also happens to have an office in Virginia, is a key piece in the puzzle. The argument is simple: cut off this supply, and you potentially cripple Russia’s war machine. This is a very specific example, but it highlights the potential of such targeted sanctions.
The challenge, however, is multifaceted. It’s easy to identify the potential weak spots, but actually shutting them down is a different story. The West’s history has been inconsistent. There’s a tendency to prioritize symbolic gestures over impactful actions. The concern is that while there might be a lot of talk, the follow-through, especially when it might inconvenience certain companies or allies, is often lacking. This creates a difficult situation for people who advocate for this kind of action.
Sanctions evasion is also a major obstacle. Even if a company like Xinxiang Richful is blocked, there’s a risk that Russia will simply find alternative suppliers, perhaps through intermediaries in other countries. The whole process would then become more complicated and costly, rather than impossible. The only real solution that would have lasting effect is a blanket policy, in which you have to choose to work with the “West” or with those who openly disregard international law, and all of the consequences that go with that decision. However, the United States is also known to invade countries.
The debate also inevitably brings up the broader geopolitical landscape. There are concerns about how such sanctions might impact relationships with China. Could these measures trigger a negative chain reaction, leading to escalating tensions or even conflict? In addition, while some see a weakened Russia as a benefit, others are wary of the potential consequences of pushing too hard. There are those who believe that a complete economic destruction of Russia might not be the best strategy, or that it is something they are not willing to do.
Then there is the issue of implementation and enforcement. The intelligence and resources required to identify these specific vulnerabilities, understand the intricacies of the Russian economy, and navigate the global market are considerable. Some companies are also difficult to sanction, or the West may choose not to.
The impact of sanctions, even the most effective ones, is not always immediate or easily measurable. It can take time for shortages to materialize, for prices to rise, and for the war effort to be affected. The goal is to inflict “small volume financial pain,” but to inflict “big hit militarily.”
The debate also involves the complexities of modern capitalism and the priorities of businesses. Profit often dictates decisions, and that’s a real challenge. You must also account for a system where some believe the West is “beholden to capitalism.”
There’s the practical problem that, as someone pointed out, there are many Chinese companies involved in supplying Russia. Blocking one might not solve the problem. Also, implementing these sanctions can trigger reactions from the targeted countries.
The debate around sanctions reveals some fundamental disagreements. Some believe the West should do everything in its power to cripple Russia, while others are more cautious, worried about unintended consequences or broader geopolitical ramifications.