By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Political analyst Nate Silver noted that disapproval of President Trump is slightly higher now than at a comparable point in his first term, with 55.9% disapproving. This negative sentiment is attributed to factors like the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case, economic policies, and general fatigue. Recent polls from The Economist/YouGov and Fox News indicate declining approval ratings and negative views on the economy, potentially impacting the upcoming 2026 midterm elections. Experts suggest that the predictability and perceived ineffectiveness of Trump’s policies could lead to a decline in popularity, opening doors for Democrats.
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Disapproval of Donald Trump now higher than his first term—Nate Silver, according to the data, is a story that, on the surface, seems significant. However, the actual numbers tell a slightly different, though perhaps not entirely surprising, tale. The increase in disapproval, as presented, is a mere 1% worse than the comparable point in his first term. This minimal shift, within the margin of statistical error, suggests that the “mass abandonment of loyalty” to Donald Trump, as some might hope for, is largely an exaggeration.
The reality is that a 1% variance in national opinion polling doesn’t amount to a seismic shift. For those who staunchly support him, whether they identify as MAGA or are just devoted followers, this seemingly small difference will likely be dismissed. Their convictions often transcend economic woes, ethical lapses, or even legal troubles. The core base seems to remain steadfast. Their support often appears to be rooted in a deeper connection, a shared ideology or a belief in his ability to disrupt the status quo, even if that disruption comes at a cost.
Moreover, the focus on disapproval, while understandable, can sometimes obscure the bigger picture. Even with higher disapproval ratings, the fact remains that a substantial portion of the population continues to approve of his performance. A seemingly low approval percentage, say, hovering around 44% or even lower, still translates into a considerable number of voters. This enduring support, despite all the controversies and criticisms, is perhaps the most significant takeaway from these polls. It speaks to the deep divisions within the electorate and the strength of the forces that drive these loyalties.
It is worth noting the current economic climate, with 76% of voters viewing the economy negatively. However, it seems that voters may view this negatively and still choose to support the former president, and the same with their view of the economy at the end of his presidency in 2024. That a significant number of Americans have a negative view of the economy, but his Republican approval rating is still high. The data indicates that it’s not the economy, stupid.
The narrative surrounding Donald Trump has always been complex. He has consistently operated outside the norms of political behavior, and that is a key element that can make him a “hero” to his supporters and a “villain” to his detractors. He has successfully tapped into a deep well of frustration and anger among a segment of the population, and that connection remains incredibly powerful. The fact that he can seemingly weather scandal after scandal and still maintain a significant base of support is a testament to this fact.
The focus on approval and disapproval also misses a crucial element: the nature of the alternative. Many voters don’t necessarily love Donald Trump, but they might perceive him as the lesser of two evils. The election dynamics are rarely so simple as approval versus disapproval. Often, it’s about making a choice between competing visions and vying for the support of those who may disapprove of both, yet they cast their votes anyway. The question of whether he would lose in an election against other popular figures is a relevant one, and it certainly highlights the complexities of the voting landscape.
There is a sense that the cycle may continue with the same results if it were to continue. The media will report on these findings. The public will discuss them. But the underlying dynamics of the political landscape will likely remain unchanged. Whether it’s a focus on his approval ratings or how he’s perceived in a given moment, it may matter less than how the opposing parties can motivate their base to turn out and cast their vote.
So, while the headline “Disapproval of Donald Trump now higher than his first term—Nate Silver” may capture attention, the real story is more nuanced. It’s a story of entrenched loyalties, deep-seated divisions, and the enduring power of a political figure who continues to defy expectations, and the need to remember that those same dynamics were likely at play during his first term.