By Matt Underwood Democrat, Republican neck and neck in Tennessee special election: Poll, and the very fact that this is even a conversation is a big deal. Trump won this district by a whopping 22 points in the last election, so the fact that the race is even close is something that should give Republicans a serious case of the jitters. This was supposed to be a guaranteed win for the GOP. Instead, we have Democrat Aftyn Behn polling within a razor-thin margin of her Republican opponent, Matt Van Epps – close enough to be within the margin of error of the poll itself.
The situation is incredibly impressive, especially when you consider the district’s recent voting history. It’s the kind of thing that makes you wonder if it’s time to start believing the unbelievable. Of course, it’s fair to be skeptical. Polls can be unreliable, especially in smaller, local elections. Special elections are also heavily influenced by turnout, so the real story will be told on election day. Low turnout could swing the vote one way or the other, and that’s exactly why aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts could make all the difference.
That said, if this tight race leads to a Democrat win, it would be a major upset. This could signal a significant shift in the political landscape, particularly if it shakes up races in other highly contested districts. It makes you wonder how people in Tennessee, a state that’s been consistently red, are still voting Republican given the policies that some feel hurt them. Regardless of the outcome, this close race is certainly offering a glimmer of hope. Even if the Republican wins, a single-digit margin would be a huge warning sign for the GOP.
Of course, the reaction to all of this is varied, with some people feeling a sense of hope, and others expressing understandable frustration with the political landscape. The upcoming election is next Tuesday, and it’s fair to say that the outcome could have a major impact. Some see this as a chance to dismantle the current regime, and some are just hoping that voter intimidation and ballot count manipulation will be kept to a minimum.
For some, the fact that this race is even competitive is a shock. Tennessee is considered a solid red state, so a close election is an indictment of the Republican party. The election is certainly a sign of how Trump is both a motivating factor for Democrats and a cause for some Republicans to stay home. Either way, this race is a clear demonstration that the party might not be in as strong a position as they thought.
There are many variables in this equation. The fact that the party is largely a personality cult that seems to thrive only when Trump is at the top of the ballot is a major point of consideration. The Republican solution to fix the problems of the party and the country is to make healthcare more expensive. This may do the opposite of what they expect.
Some people are noting that the redistricting could backfire. It’s possible that the party is digging its own grave, and the fact that a leading fundraiser is warning about how they need to address the promises Trump made to the base should be a wake-up call. Trump is both popular and unpopular at the same time, and it’s important to remember that presidents tend to draw voters. With this special election, the election may be a microcosm of larger issues within the party.
The state of Tennessee could be a bellwether for what we might see happen in other states like Texas. Redistricting efforts could lead to unintended consequences, as they might create districts that are less safe for Republicans than expected. While polling accuracy is always a concern, especially in a special election, the implications of this close race in Tennessee are clear: the Republican party should be very worried.