By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te announced plans to bolster defense spending with a $40 billion budget, citing “intensifying” threats from China, which views the island as its own territory. Lai stated that Xi Jinping’s regime is accelerating military preparations to take Taiwan by force, leading to a focus on achieving a “high level of combat preparedness” by 2027. This includes investment in equipment like missiles and drones, artificial intelligence, and increased cooperation with the United States. President Lai emphasized that any compromise in the face of aggression would only lead to war, and the greatest threat is giving up.
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The core takeaway from all this discussion is that Taiwan is preparing for the possibility of combat by 2027, as its president has indicated, due to the increasing perception that China is planning to take the country by force. This isn’t just a recent development, it’s a narrative that’s been gaining traction, particularly since around 2022, with the focus converging on 2027. That date aligns with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army, adding a layer of strategic significance. The potential consequences of such an event, from a global perspective, are truly staggering.
Considering the specifics of a potential invasion, many sources say the ideal time for amphibious attacks would be around April or October, given weather conditions. While air attacks are possible, sea access is crucial. If China were to launch an attack, the global economy would be thrown into chaos. Taiwan is the hub of the chip and semiconductor manufacturing industry, producing somewhere between 60% to 90% of the world’s supply. A Chinese takeover, or a scorched earth policy by Taiwan itself, potentially destroying these factories, could cripple computers and military systems worldwide, leading to a financial crash. The sheer scale of the disruption makes it a situation that the US wouldn’t likely tolerate. The economic interconnectedness of the world, with much manufacturing based in China, would result in widespread hardship.
A more likely scenario, in the near term, involves “gray-zone” tactics. These include cyberattacks, airspace incursions, maritime harassment, and disinformation campaigns designed to weaken Taiwan without triggering a full-scale war. China’s leaders tend to be risk-averse, focusing on stability. A shooting war, especially one that could be lost, doesn’t fit this approach. The possibility of such actions happening during the Trump presidency is also being raised, possibly due to what some perceive as a more favorable environment for China.
The historical context is important too. Taiwan’s existence as a democratic society serves as a reminder to the Chinese people of an alternative model, which is seen as a threat to the CCP. The island is also geographically challenging, with mountainous terrain and dense jungles, which could make an invasion and occupation difficult. However, the economic stakes are also high, as Taiwan’s leverage over the US for support is significant. Any potential for China’s action is tied to the actions and policies of the United States.
Many believe that the US and its allies may not have the capacity to stop China, given the country’s missile systems and sheer military power. Logistically, supplying Taiwan with the necessary firepower and manpower during an invasion is seen as a near-impossible task. If China were to invade, it’s expected to bring overwhelming force, perhaps a ratio of three to five combatants to one. There’s a certain cynicism about the US and its allies’ claims of deterrence capabilities, viewing them as a way to generate funds for American weapons.
Regarding the timing, 2027 is a frequently mentioned date. However, there’s always the chance an invasion could occur before or after that date. The motivations for China are complex, and the potential impact of a Chinese invasion is far-reaching. The potential for a new war is always present. The reasons for this timing include Xi’s age, the aging population, the US elections, and other strategic factors. While some doubt that China can fully take Taiwan, China is building to something. A Chinese invasion might occur, it’s just a matter of when.