By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In Belgrade, Serbia, thousands protested against a $500 million luxury development project linked to Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law. The project, planned for the site of the former Yugoslav Army headquarters, which was destroyed during the 1999 NATO bombing campaign, has sparked outrage due to alleged corruption and historical significance. The government has fast-tracked the project by classifying it as “urgent,” despite legal challenges and claims that the development erases a painful part of national history. Critics also fear the replacement of the ruins with luxury towers will erase a painful part of national history.
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Thousands of Serbs have protested, vowing to stop a $500 million luxury project linked to US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, and it’s understandable why. Demolishing a historic train station, one that withstood the ravages of multiple wars, to make way for luxury apartments aimed at wealthy outsiders while many locals are struggling financially? It’s a recipe for simmering discontent, and it seems that the pot is finally boiling over. My understanding is that the situation is already tense, and a genuine fear exists among the population, especially those in Belgrade, that things could escalate significantly.
Belgrade has fast-tracked the plan despite anger over corruption and a historical legacy, which only fans the flames of this discontent. The government’s actions, coupled with the project’s controversial nature, create a dangerous cocktail. It is easy to see how the people could feel their voices are not being heard, their history is being disregarded, and that they’re being pushed aside for the benefit of the elite. This perception of disregard, when layered with financial hardships, only exacerbates the public’s frustration.
It seems the government’s response to the protests is only compounding the issue. Reports of disappearances and suspicious deaths, immediately labeled as suicides, are incredibly concerning. When citizens feel they cannot trust the authorities to protect them, or to provide transparent investigations, it erodes the foundations of society. The opening and closing of schools out of fear further indicates the gravity of the situation. This creates an atmosphere of paranoia, uncertainty, and a palpable sense of fear that can destabilize a society.
The “terrorist attack” near parliament that many people dismiss as fabricated adds another layer of complexity. The suspicion surrounding the event, coupled with the other troubling events, is a common tactic deployed by regimes to discredit opposition. This type of action only fuels the narrative of a corrupt and oppressive government, as the people are less likely to believe the official story. It’s hard to imagine how this will foster trust and unity.
Now, considering the global context, it’s not surprising that Donald Trump’s involvement in the project is met with opposition, as he is generally unpopular worldwide. His personal history and political views are well-documented, and they could very well exacerbate public sentiment. The fact that the project is connected to a figure like Trump, who has been a source of controversy and division, only intensifies the opposition to the luxury development.
This brings us to the question of what the future holds. The parallels to the Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine, or the 2021 protests in Belarus, are understandable. The Serbians, like any people facing an uncertain future, have reasonable concerns. The uncertainty of how the future plays out, and the potential for a violent resolution, is something many are understandably anxious about. It is important to remember that Serbia is surrounded by EU member states, which gives them a distinct advantage over the situation in Ukraine and Belarus.
The question of whether the EU will intervene is key to the outcome. EU inaction, or at least insufficient action, might result in a more brutal outcome. However, greater support from the EU and greater pressure on the Serbian government could change the equation. The Serbians are still unified, and unlike Ukraine or Belarus, they have the benefit of being surrounded by EU members, which can provide them with a safety net.
Then there is the issue of Russia. It seems Russia is already playing a role in the protests. Pro-Russian sentiment is already being encouraged, and the government in power has close ties with Russia. Given Russia’s current situation, its involvement seems unlikely, though it has never been afraid to meddle. The situation in Serbia is undoubtedly complex, and the potential involvement of external actors only adds to the uncertainty.
The Serbian government’s relationship with the EU is an interesting aspect. The fact that even the Serbian leaders feel obligated to play nice with the EU is an implicit acknowledgment that Russia cannot provide meaningful support. Visa-free travel from Russia exists, which suggests an odd game of political maneuvering. It also creates economic ties that some might view as short-sighted.
The arrival of a substantial number of Russians in Serbia since 2022 raises additional questions. The presence of posters praising Putin in Belgrade, combined with the encouragement of anti-Western sentiment, points to Russia’s involvement in stoking the flames of protest. The potential outcome is one where the government replaces Vucic and is likely to be more pro-Russian, while also being less democratic. This seems to be the most likely outcome.