By John Q. Hosedrinker 
At the NATO-Industry Forum in Bucharest, Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that NATO has surpassed Russia in ammunition production, a significant shift in the defense landscape. This increase is attributed to new production lines across member states, requiring continued collaboration with private manufacturers. Rutte also emphasized the Alliance’s commitment to investing in defense, expanding into high-end air defense, drones, and cyber capabilities. Finally, despite setbacks in Ukraine, Russia remains a threat; NATO must prepare for a prolonged confrontation by outproducing and outsmarting its adversaries.
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Rutte: NATO Now Outproduces Russia in Ammunition After Years of Lag
It seems like good news indeed, doesn’t it? To hear that NATO, and that seemingly includes the U.S., has finally surpassed Russia in ammunition production after years of playing catch-up. It’s a significant shift, especially when you consider where we were. The West, after the Cold War, had this optimistic view, maybe a bit naive, that sophisticated, high-precision weapons in smaller quantities would be enough for future conflicts. The whole shell manufacturing process had kind of become a bespoke, almost artisan, type of industry.
One has to acknowledge the impact of the man at the center of all of this. While the idea of war is awful, Putin actually did manage to expose a significant weakness. He called the West on its bluff, that the limited stocks of ammunition available wouldn’t be sufficient in a conflict situation. Rutte, to his credit, has become a strong advocate for NATO. Under his leadership, the European nations have really stepped up, boosting their defense budgets and, crucially, ramping up weapons manufacturing. And the defense contractors? Well, they’re probably thanking Putin, too. They now have access to financial resources they hadn’t seen before. He really made them realize the Russian threat is real, and they had to take concrete steps to defend themselves. One also has to give some credit to Trump for his threats to pull the U.S. out of NATO – it certainly seems to have scared the Europeans into action.
However, the question of whether this includes the United States, and whether this outproduces Russia plus North Korea and China, certainly comes to mind. Keep in mind, rearmament isn’t something that can be turned on and off like a light switch. This is a multi-year project. The decisions made in 2023 and 2024 are the reason for this shift in production. It is likely that the production levels in 2026 are already set in stone, and that the changes that happen now will be for 2027 and onward. Russia isn’t going anywhere. This is a long-term problem. The U.S. can be somewhat unreliable, and, of course, wars require a massive amount of ammunition. The NATO alliance has to keep its foot on the gas and scale up production in order to make a wider war less likely and to save both money and lives. It is a good thing to see this commitment.
It is also important to consider the broader implications. The fact that the “good guys” are producing more ammunition is good. However, from a global perspective, it is not so good. The one positive outcome from this conflict is that war has returned to the forefront of many countries’ agendas. It is a harsh reality.
For anyone who favors peace, the situation is obviously less than ideal. However, Russia and China’s aggression may have to be met with force.
Rutte’s statement indicates that all NATO allies, including the U.S., are involved in this increased production. That makes sense, because without the U.S., Europe’s output still lags behind Russia’s. It’s a massive undertaking, and that is why it is so remarkable that this has happened.
Also, it’s worth considering whether the figures include other sources of ammunition for Russia, such as North Korea. I am assuming that Rutte’s statement did not consider those sources. Putin gambled. He thought he could take Ukraine quickly and that a response would be too late. However, he lost. The peace-loving among us hope that countries realize they cannot wage wars of conquest. Russia needs to realize this.
And the narrative about the military-industrial complex making vast profits is also worth addressing. The fact is, many other industries offer higher profits with less risk. Healthcare, for example. The U.S., despite its massive defense industry, spends about 5% of its GDP on defense. That’s a huge number, almost a trillion dollars, compared to other NATO countries, which are around $100 billion. The world, through this conflict, is being unified.
It is really important to keep in mind that Russia is not going to change its behavior. Russia does not want a full-scale war with NATO, but if they think they can launch a small incursion into a NATO country and not trigger Article V and stop NATO countries from arming Ukraine, then it’s a risk they may take.
Both NATO and Europe specifically need to abandon the idea of “we don’t need to prepare for X because Putin would never do X.” The best way to deter Russia is by being well prepared. This is especially true if you want to beat Russia without temporarily giving up land and sacrificing hundreds of thousands of lives. Quality and accuracy matter too. Russian shells are typically less accurate and have higher dud rates, so they need larger numbers to destroy the same targets. Russia is being met by force in Ukraine. If Russia loses in Ukraine, it makes the odds of a larger war with Russia significantly less likely. China hasn’t fought a major war since Vietnam in 1979 and I don’t think it’s inevitable that they will either. The best thing democracies can do to deter a war with China is to stay well armed and make sure Russia loses in Ukraine. You want Xi looking over at Putin and saying “I don’t want to end up like that guy”.
On the numbers side, the European figures are mostly public, although not all member states reveal their information. Russia’s numbers are a bit of a fiction, but they do have a lot of munitions. The NATO alliance is now committed to outproducing Russia in ammunition. This is a very good thing.