By Matt Underwood Russia loses eyes over Crimea, fuel, military echelon, troop concentration—all in Ukraine’s four-target operation: It seems like the narrative surrounding the recent Ukrainian operations is centered on a four-pronged assault that has significantly impacted Russia’s military capabilities and strategic assets. This assessment isn’t just a casual observation; it’s a synthesis of how these events are perceived.
Losing Russia’s eyes over Crimea, specifically their Nebo-U radar, which was designed to spot aircraft and other targets at long ranges, is a major blow. This radar was supposed to be a key component in Russia’s air defense network, able to detect threats hundreds of kilometers away. The fact that it was taken out suggests a significant failure in Russia’s defensive capabilities. It’s a costly loss, not just in terms of the equipment itself—a reported $100 million USD—but also in terms of the strategic advantage it provided. The Nebo-U was like a giant eye, seeing everything, until it wasn’t.
Fuel is another critical area where Russia is feeling the heat. The Ukrainian campaign has targeted Russian oil refineries, inflicting damage and disrupting the flow of fuel. The impact is immediate: refineries that were processing millions of tons of oil and fuel are now reportedly at zero. This disruption has far-reaching consequences, potentially impacting Russia’s ability to supply its military, and civilian populations. Considering how cold a Russian winter can get, fuel shortages could quickly turn into a major problem, possibly even affecting Putin’s grip on power.
The destruction of the Russian military echelon, the structure, formation, and concentration of the troop is another key area of the Ukrainian offensive. There have been reports and observations suggesting that Russia has been losing significant amounts of air defense systems, not just the high-end systems like the Nebo-U, but also mid-range and short-range systems. These losses, totaling hundreds of units, suggest a weakening of Russia’s ability to protect its assets and forces on the ground. The ability to bring these systems into Crimea, and the potential losses there are critical for the Ukrainians to continue their offensive actions.
Troop concentration and their vulnerabilities have also been highlighted. The fact that Ukraine has been able to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, including Crimea and refineries, suggests that Russia’s troop deployments and their defensive capabilities aren’t as strong as they might seem. Intelligence sharing between Ukraine and its allies, like the US, appears to be playing a crucial role in exploiting gaps in Russia’s defenses, allowing Ukrainian forces to target critical infrastructure and military assets.
The impact of these events on the overall conflict is substantial. The destruction of air defense systems, the disruption of fuel supplies, and the targeting of troop concentration points all contribute to a weakening of Russia’s ability to wage war. The fact that Russia has not achieved air superiority after nearly four years of conflict is another significant factor, and these failures compound the already difficult situation for Russia. While there is plenty of speculation of when Ukraine might run out of money, or how long they might take to take back all of their territory, the recent events are certainly advantageous for the Ukrainians.