By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The skies above Pokrovsk, Ukraine, are heavily saturated with drones, making military movement risky. However, recent foggy weather has allowed Russian forces to infiltrate the city using motorcycles and vehicles, as evidenced by social media footage. Ukrainian military experts estimate a significant Russian troop presence in the city, with a pincer-like strategy underway to encircle Pokrovsk. The constant threat of drones forces both sides to alter logistics and tactics, with Ukrainian forces outnumbered and fighting for control amidst a dwindling civilian population.
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Russia has tried for over a year to take Pokrovsk. Hundreds of its troops are now in the strategic city, and the situation there is complex, to say the least. It’s hard not to notice the shift in resources, or lack thereof, on the Russian side. Some reports suggest a significant decline in military production, with soldiers now utilizing unconventional transport like dirt bikes, old sedans, and vans. This doesn’t exactly scream “strategic power.”
Pokrovsk is no longer the bustling logistics hub it once was; it’s now a battered town, essentially a speed bump on the road for the Russian advance. The real value lies in its role of keeping the path to Myrnorhad open. However, if both cities were to fall, Ukraine hopes to retreat to the next fortified town, hopefully halting the Russian advance once again. The question of whether or not to hold Pokrovsk for as long as they have, and the benefit of holding it for the weeks it was held has prompted some debate.
The narrative seems to be that Ukraine is using Pokrovsk as a way to bleed the Russians dry, forcing them to expend vast resources while simultaneously preventing an outright victory, allowing for time to fortify behind Pokrovsk. The goal isn’t necessarily to hold Pokrovsk indefinitely, but to buy time to keep supply lines to Myrnorhad open, a city with a very defensive position, overlooking open fields.
The Russian approach, based on the reports, seems to be a strategy of attrition. Small teams, sometimes as few as three soldiers, are sent in, hoping some will survive, and continue to the objective. A constant stream of manpower, meant to overwhelm the defenses, essentially sending in waves of soldiers until the Ukrainian defenses are either depleted or overwhelmed. There is also the problem that the main logistics used by the Russians uses rail infrastructure, so it can be rebuilt quickly. If they can get rail back up and running, in a strategic location, then the rest of the city becomes less vital.
However, the cost of this tactic is high. The city fighting is an absolute meat grinder. It’s a fight the Russians don’t want, but can’t avoid. The Ukrainians are making them pay a terrible price. Russia is able to make gains, but is suffering heavy losses. Ukraine has mostly negated the advantage Russia had in heavy armor, but unfortunately, Russia can still use artillery to lob powerful bombs on Ukrainian defensive lines. It’s a harsh reality where the Russians are still capable of making gains, despite facing significant losses.
The importance of Pokrovsk is also diminishing. Its significance declines as supply lines shift, and alternative routes open. At this point the push is to hold until alternative routes open up to Myrnorhad, to prevent an encirclement.
The use of dirt bikes by Russian forces may also reflect a desperation for any available resources. They are actually a modern troop transport for a similar adversary. The effectiveness of this tactic remains to be seen, but it’s clear that Russia is adapting to the challenges. And if the Russians are truly desperate and nearly beaten, the need for new methods of war is clear.
The battlefield is shifting, and the Ukrainians are finding ways to slow the Russian advance, using the environment to their advantage. Ukraine has had a tactic from day one to deny Russian advances across the line. Taking a city without air superiority is a meat grinder, and levels the playing field for Ukraine in terms of manpower and material. This also gives the Russian army a real challenge, as they try to avoid the cities that can be used as hard points.
The core of the issue boils down to logistics and command. With compromised supply lines, the soldiers on the ground are unable to resupply or pull out, and there may be a disconnect between the higher command and the situation on the ground.
While it’s easy to say evacuate, war is a complicated thing. Holding the ground for as long as possible while making the enemy spend as much as possible is the goal.