By Matt Underwood EU countries are absolutely right to be demanding a seat at the table regarding any US-Russia plan to end the war in Ukraine. It’s not just a matter of fairness; it’s a matter of practicality and future stability. To leave out the countries most directly impacted – Ukraine and those in Europe – is to guarantee that whatever agreement is reached will be fundamentally flawed and potentially disastrous. A plan designed to appease Russia at the expense of Ukraine, without meaningful input from the EU, isn’t a plan for peace; it’s a blueprint for future conflicts.
The idea that the US and Russia could unilaterally decide the fate of a sovereign nation, especially one in Europe, is simply unacceptable. The EU has a vested interest in the outcome. This war is happening on their doorstep, it directly impacts their security, and it has profound economic and social consequences. They cannot and should not be expected to simply accept whatever is decided in a backroom deal. The potential for a “Munich Agreement” scenario – where land is ceded for the illusion of peace – looms large, and Europe, along with Ukraine, must have a voice to prevent such an outcome.
The very premise of negotiations without Ukrainian involvement is absurd. Who would think that’s acceptable? The EU and Ukraine must be involved, period. A one-sided deal, particularly if the US is perceived to be pressuring Ukraine or withholding support to force concessions, is unlikely to be viable. And as European defense industries grow, the US leverage diminishes further.
It’s understandable why Ukraine feels trapped. They are facing immense pressure and have become reliant on external support. However, sacrificing their sovereignty and future for a deal brokered by external actors, especially if it leads to further instability, is not a solution. The EU has a duty to stand with Ukraine and ensure that its voice is heard and its interests are protected.
Of course, the involvement of any US administration, especially one with a stated goal of “ending the war” quickly to score political points, raises serious concerns. If the underlying motivation is simply to secure a “win” for domestic political gain, without regard for the long-term stability of the region or the rights of the Ukrainian people, then the process is inherently suspect. And the prospect of opening up trade with Russia while leaving European companies behind, further exacerbates fears.
Ultimately, the EU needs to be prepared to act. If a deal is struck that they deem unacceptable, they must be willing to reject it. They need to coordinate closely with Ukraine to formulate their own proposals and ensure their interests are represented. They have the economic and political leverage to influence the outcome, but they must be willing to use it. Waiting for the US to take the lead and then complaining when they’re excluded won’t work. The EU should be proactively engaged, setting the terms for any potential settlement. They should set their own requirements and have negotiations between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.
There are also the dynamics of the American political landscape to consider. If a US administration is seen as weakened or isolated on the international stage, this further highlights the need for a strong and unified European response. The EU cannot afford to be sidelined or ignored. The EU has always been talking, now they need to do more.
The EU has to be strong enough to say no. Their military should be investing in weaponry to be taken seriously. Europe’s future depends on it. Any country’s capacity to show belligerence is not a path forward. The idea of Trump seeking to end the war to create a “win” for himself, even at the cost of Ukrainian sovereignty, is deeply troubling. The potential for appeasement, for simply allowing Russia to keep its gains in exchange for a temporary cessation of hostilities, is a recipe for long-term instability. It is the EU’s responsibility to prevent it. They need to be proactive to prevent the repetition of the mistakes of the past and to ensure that the future of Europe is not decided behind closed doors by those with agendas that don’t align with the continent’s interests.