By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Analysis reveals China’s carbon dioxide emissions have remained flat or decreased for the past 18 months, potentially indicating the nation has reached its peak emissions target ahead of schedule. This is largely due to a rapid increase in solar and wind power generation, with significant capacity additions in the first nine months of the year. While overall emissions for 2025 could still see a small rise, the trend suggests a potential full-year decrease. Despite this progress, experts note China may miss its target for carbon intensity reduction between 2020 and 2025, and some sectors are still seeing emissions growth.
Read the original article here
China’s CO2 emissions have been flat or falling for past 18 months, analysis finds, which is certainly a welcome development. It’s a piece of news that sparks a lot of interesting thoughts, doesn’t it? The first one that springs to mind is, well, it’s about time. With the massive expansion of solar, wind, and even nuclear energy, it seemed inevitable that emissions couldn’t continue their relentless climb forever. For a long time, the country’s energy consumption was growing faster than its low-carbon energy infrastructure could expand. But, as we all know, energy use per person can’t spiral upward indefinitely.
Then, there’s the undeniable role of China’s high market share of electric vehicles and large mass transit systems. These are significantly more energy-efficient than their gasoline-powered counterparts, contributing greatly to a shift in how energy is being utilized. And, let’s be honest, it’s pretty fantastic news if this trend genuinely continues. It’s easy to see the benefits, especially when compared to policies in other places that seem to be undermining efforts to combat pollution, while also increasing demand, which in turn causes prices to skyrocket.
China’s shift, in my opinion, wasn’t just about environmental concerns. They’re smart, understanding that green energy is the future, a strategic move if you ask me. I mean, they are making bold changes, right? There is a level of pragmatism in play: economic advantage and energy security. The air quality in many Chinese cities was notoriously bad, a source of international embarrassment. Therefore, it was practically a given that China would address the issue. The country knows it needs to be self-sufficient and weaken any currency connected to fossil fuels.
China is certainly not the only one doing this. Global CO2 levels are still on the rise, even if this specific news sounds good. China is still the world’s leading polluter, and that’s not going to change overnight. What’s more, there are valid concerns about the reliability of any data, given the country’s past record of manipulating information. The country is also building coal plants in other countries, which might negate any domestic progress. Despite all this, a shift is happening.
Of course, the fact that China is also planting forests on a massive scale should not be overlooked. They are planting millions of hectares of forest every year as part of a “Green Great Wall” project. Although the project may not be perfect, particularly in the initial years, it shows real progress. China is doing this to ensure its long-term future. It is not about simply trying to gain popularity. They also want to weaken any currency tied to fossil fuels.
We shouldn’t underestimate the role of economic factors. The Chinese economy has been struggling over the past couple of years, with deflation instead of the inflation that we see elsewhere. That must have something to do with the situation, with falling producer prices also contributing, combined with investment in renewable energy. However, even if China is using more solar and wind power, there is still the potential for increased emissions, considering that the country still opens new coal-burning power plants. So, that leaves me thinking: something may not be as it seems.
It’s tempting to think that this is all a sign of goodwill. But let’s face it: actions are often driven by economic benefits and national security, which align with social good. The country has been operating at the highest possible levels, so, any downturn would naturally lead to reduced economic output. The USA and its policies are also worth mentioning. The US is a Petro state, and it’s pretty easy to see where that is taking us if it continues on the wrong path. We cannot ignore that China’s energy security depends on its shift away from hydrocarbons, which can’t guarantee supply, and towards safer alternatives.
It is really important to keep in mind that the world doesn’t operate in a straight line. There may have been decreases in the past that were temporary. Emissions could easily increase again. Also, you have to remember that emissions and the concentration of those emissions are very different. The numbers need to be viewed in relation to each other. China’s shift in energy is not just a win for the environment, it is also a win for the country’s economic and energy security.