By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin fears a ceasefire due to the challenges of returning to full-scale war, including economic difficulties, societal strain, and international repercussions. Zelenskyy suggests that increased pressure on Russia through long-range strikes, sanctions, and battlefield defense is necessary to achieve a ceasefire. He also indicated that support for peace initiatives is vital to this process. Finally, Zelenskyy stated that if Donald Trump were to end the war he would be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
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Zelenskyy, in his assessment of Putin’s hesitance towards a ceasefire, likely highlights a complex web of interconnected factors, primarily revolving around Russia’s economic vulnerabilities and the potential for political upheaval.
A significant point Zelenskyy might emphasize is Russia’s dependence on the war economy. Industries that previously relied on Western investment have been propped up by the conflict. If hostilities cease, a substantial portion of these sectors could collapse, leading to severe economic consequences. This economic reality, coupled with difficulties in the oil industry, creates a precarious situation for Putin. He’s essentially trapped, unable to sustain the current pace indefinitely but equally unable to stop without risking the stability of his regime.
Furthermore, Zelenskyy understands that Putin’s concerns go beyond the immediate battlefield. A ceasefire could expose the cracks within Russia’s leadership. Facing the prospect of potentially losing wealth, power, or even their lives, the oligarchs might act. Therefore, maintaining the war provides a justification for the status quo, allowing Putin to control the narrative and suppress any internal opposition. The longer the war goes on, the more Putin can portray it as a matter of survival for Russia, thus rallying support and silencing dissent.
Another critical factor is the potential for Ukraine and the West to leverage a ceasefire more effectively than Russia. Zelenskyy recognizes that the West, with its larger and more robust economy, can utilize a pause in fighting to rebuild and rearm. It’s easier for Ukraine to focus on building proper defenses, like robust trench systems, with some breathing room and get much needed rest for their people. This would allow Ukraine to re-arm strategically and potentially gain a strategic advantage when the fighting resumes.
From Zelenskyy’s perspective, Putin’s reluctance also stems from a fundamental difference in strategic goals. While Ukraine seeks to defend its territory, Putin likely envisions a grandiose victory, a complete subjugation of Ukraine. Any ceasefire that falls short of this aim would be unacceptable. It would be viewed as a failure, diminishing his power and prestige on the world stage. Grandiose narcissism fuels the desire for a complete triumph, making a ceasefire a non-starter if the conditions for such a triumph are not met.
Moreover, a ceasefire favors the West. It could potentially lead to a reduction in sanctions on Russia, allowing it to rebuild its economy. Additionally, a ceasefire gives Ukraine and its allies an opportunity to address Putin’s economic weaknesses. It allows Ukraine time to develop its own covert actions and make more of an impact within Russian borders.
Zelenskyy might also highlight that a ceasefire would expose the vulnerabilities of the Russian military machine. The current war economy allows Russia to pay for its actions. If there is no war, they would have to sort out the economy and use welfare to support its own people. This would create economic problems. The losses of men in their productive working age and the depletion of resources is an economic problem.
In essence, Zelenskyy understands that Putin’s fears stem from a strategic, economic, and political imperative to avoid a ceasefire. The war provides a crucial means of maintaining power, controlling the economy, and quashing any threats to his rule. A ceasefire, on the other hand, would expose the weaknesses of the Russian system and create opportunities for Ukraine and the West to strengthen their position. This complex calculation is at the heart of Zelenskyy’s explanation of why Putin is so hesitant to end the conflict.