By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes the potential delivery of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine could significantly strengthen its position and compel Russia to negotiate. Zelensky discussed the matter with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has not ruled out the possibility, despite previous rejections under the Biden administration. The Tomahawk’s long range would enable strikes deep into Russia, potentially escalating the war and prompting strong warnings from the Kremlin. The U.S. president has expressed an intent to supply the missiles, as the administration already begins supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Read the original article here
Tomahawk deliveries could force Russia to ‘sober up’ and negotiate, Zelensky says, a sentiment that’s generated a lot of buzz, and understandably so. It’s a simple enough idea on the surface: provide Ukraine with advanced weaponry, in this case, the potent Tomahawk cruise missile, and maybe, just maybe, it’ll bring Russia to the negotiating table. The thought is, that by raising the stakes and the cost of the conflict, Putin and his inner circle might decide that the continued aggression isn’t worth it.
This perspective suggests that a shift in military dynamics could be what’s needed to force a change in Russia’s approach. The idea is that Russia, facing the potential for significant damage to its infrastructure and military capabilities, would reassess its strategic goals. The expectation is that such pressure could lead to a more realistic appraisal of the situation, potentially paving the way for talks and ultimately, a negotiated settlement. It also changes the entire playing field by shifting Russia’s war production far from Ukraine, which is a massive and costly undertaking that will weaken them.
But does this mean Russia will actually “sober up”? That’s the million-dollar question. Some are skeptical, given Russia’s history, its reliance on certain allies, and the ongoing flow of resources, it seems this could be a long shot. The theory is that military pressure is the only thing that will make Putin consider a ceasefire. The reality is that Russia could drag this out, and is capable of inflicting damage. The use of these missiles is a good idea, but will the end result be more destruction?
There’s also the complex issue of escalation. Introducing these high-precision weapons would undoubtedly alter the battlefield. While proponents see this as a deterrent and a means to achieve a quicker resolution, others are concerned that it could lead to a dangerous cycle of tit-for-tat actions. There’s a chance that such a move could be viewed as overly provocative, causing Russia to dig in its heels further, or escalate the conflict. What happens when you introduce a new factor into an already unstable situation?
Moreover, the successful use of the Tomahawks would depend on several factors, including the systems to launch them, which would be a struggle to obtain. The narrative that the introduction of new weaponry could shift the balance could create the potential for psychological warfare as well.
The economic aspect also comes into play. As Ukraine continues to face the strain of war, and with much of its funding coming from its allies, the potential impact on Russia’s economy is significant. The idea is that targeting Russia’s oil and gas facilities could deal a serious blow to their war-making capabilities. This may lead to a change in power, as new Russian leadership could seek to improve relations with the international community.
The road to a negotiated peace is never easy. The fact that Russia wants a connection to weak European countries adds another layer of complexity. A weak Russia is not necessarily a safe Russia. In the meantime, the only way that the war will end is by significantly weakening the aggressor. There’s no middle ground with this guy, and no one wants to see the war end.