By John Q. Hosedrinker 
An investigation by The New York Times reveals that Vietnam has significantly increased its military purchases from Russia, employing covert financial channels to circumvent sanctions. Despite strengthening ties with the US, Vietnam resumed major arms deals with Russia by 2024, potentially accelerating when Trump returned to office. Documents from Russian state exporter Rostec indicate a potential $8 billion deal, including fighter jets, alongside electronic warfare systems and mobile jammers. To facilitate payments, Vietnam and Russia established a scheme using joint oil-and-gas ventures. This move reflects a broader geopolitical strategy by Vietnam to diversify its suppliers and navigate regional tensions, as one official stated that the US should focus on cooperation in non-military sectors rather than pressuring Vietnam to cease arms purchases from Russia.
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Vietnam Buys 40 Russian Su-35 Fighters in Covert $8 Billion Weapons Pact—With Oil Payments to Dodge Sanctions, and it’s a bit of a head-scratcher, isn’t it? The news of Vietnam’s $8 billion deal to purchase 40 Russian Su-35 fighter jets, wrapped up in a cloak of covertness with oil payments to circumvent sanctions, is definitely stirring the pot. It feels less like a covert operation and more like a big splash in the geopolitical pool, especially considering how much of Vietnam’s trade is currently tied up with the United States.
Considering that Russia is currently in no position to actually deliver 40 Su-35s right now, let alone in a timely manner, one has to wonder about the practicality of the deal. Where exactly are these jets coming from? And what are the chances of them actually arriving? Perhaps a kinetic sanctions program from Ukraine will have more impact on the deal than any economic sanctions. It’s a question that hangs heavy in the air, especially as the world watches Russia’s ability to uphold arms deals while embroiled in a major conflict.
The financial maneuverings are also interesting. The article mentioned the use of joint oil-and-gas ventures to shuffle money around, dodging traditional banking channels to avoid Western sanctions. This, of course, raises questions about how effective such sanctions can be in this new era of geopolitical games. It’s a tactic that showcases a certain level of ingenuity, but also highlights the lengths some nations will go to maintain relationships with Russia.
The implications for Vietnam are significant. While they are happy to ally with the West when faced with the threat of China, this arms deal seems to be aligning themselves within the Russian-Chinese sphere. One has to wonder how this will affect Vietnam’s future relationship with the West and the trust that’s been built over time. The U.S. might be hesitant to come to their aid when China threatens them. And it does make one consider what other choices Vietnam might have. For example, will the U.S. sell them F-16s?
Of course, the quality of the aircraft is also a relevant factor. If the Sukhois aren’t up to par with Western-made fighters, then Vietnam’s military might be at a disadvantage in a skirmish. This makes you question the value of the purchase, no matter how much Vietnam fears and hates China. The military casualty numbers don’t lie.
The timing of this deal is also noteworthy. The US was on the verge of actually gaining influence over Vietnam, with the country possibly shifting away from Russian arms and toward Western options. The US was winning by doing nothing because Russia was struggling with the invasion of Ukraine and China has been struggling with a deflating economy since the pandemic.
So now, with this deal, we see Vietnam potentially heading back in the other direction, which in turn might open them up for some harsh tariffs down the road. The United States and Vietnam have strong trade relations. But those ties could be strained if the US government views this arms deal as a betrayal of trust.
The long-term effects of this deal on Vietnam’s relationship with the US, and its ability to defend itself against China, are still unknown. It’s a complex situation, with multiple layers and considerations, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.