By John Q. Hosedrinker 
AP News reports that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that long-range strikes on Russian refineries have diminished Moscow’s oil refining capacity by 20%, with over 90% of those strikes conducted using Ukrainian-made weapons. He emphasized the need for more financial assistance to increase production of these weapons. Zelenskyy also discussed ongoing efforts to secure funding for winter gas imports and bolster defense against Russian attacks.
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Ukraine’s long-range strikes on refineries inside Russia have reduced Moscow’s oil refining capacity by 20%, as stated by President Zelenskyy, and this is truly significant news in the ongoing conflict. This information, sourced from Western intelligence, paints a picture of a strategic shift, where Ukraine is now actively targeting Russia’s economic lifeline: its oil and gas revenue. This isn’t just about military targets; it’s about hitting Russia where it hurts the most – its pocketbook.
The figure of 20% might seem conservative, and I can understand the reasoning behind keeping the number realistic. But even if it’s a bit of an understatement, the impact of these strikes is undeniable. It’s a bold move, and it’s starting to reshape the battlefield dynamics, providing Ukraine with a glimmer of hope that they can eventually prevail. The goal, as Zelenskyy seems to envision it, is to inflict enough financial pain on Russia to potentially compel Putin to consider ending the war. It’s a high-stakes gamble, but with the odds stacked against them, this is the kind of aggressive move that Ukraine needs to make to create a more favorable strategic position.
Over 90% of these deep strikes on Russian soil have been conducted using Ukrainian-made long-range weapons. This is another critical piece of the puzzle. It highlights the growing capabilities of Ukraine’s defense industry and its ability to innovate and produce weapons capable of reaching deep inside Russia. Zelenskyy’s call for additional financial support to boost production capacity is therefore a practical and understandable request. It’s not just about defending Ukraine anymore, it’s about pushing the fight to Russia’s economic core.
The importance of oil exports to funding Russia’s war machine cannot be overstated. By targeting the refineries, Ukraine is directly impacting Russia’s ability to finance its military operations. Simultaneously, new sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union are designed to further constrict Russia’s oil and gas export earnings. It is a one-two punch aimed at crippling Russia’s war chest. It is a sign of coordinated effort – both military and economic – that is essential for Ukraine’s survival.
It’s crucial to remember that the war, unfortunately, shows no immediate signs of ending, even after nearly four years. This makes these long-range strikes even more critical. With the Kremlin seemingly unwilling to compromise, Ukraine has to find innovative ways to pressure Russia and force it to the negotiating table. This aggressive strategy gives Ukraine a degree of offensive capability.
Considering the damage done to the infrastructure of Russian refineries, the 20% figure appears reasonable, and some estimates actually place it higher, potentially even in the mid-thirties. The truth lies somewhere in the range, and it is evident that these strikes have had a significant impact. Some analysts estimate that nearly half of all refineries in Russia have been hit, which is a considerable blow to the oil refining capabilities. However, a hit doesn’t always mean complete shutdown, so the 20% seems like a reasonable starting assessment.
The impact of the strikes is already noticeable. The damage to facilities, particularly those of larger refineries such as Ryazan, which constitutes roughly 5% of Russia’s refining capacity, has had a ripple effect. There are export bans, and long lines are forming, although it’s worth noting that some supply issues might also be tied to domestic problems in gas production. Still, the overall consequence of these strikes has been to make it more difficult for Russia to maintain its revenue stream from oil and gas exports.
While some might suggest that the effects are minimal, particularly in gas production, the bigger picture shows otherwise. The targeted refineries account for a vast portion of Russia’s refining capacity. The fact that Ukraine is hitting these critical targets, coupled with the repairs to the infrastructure, demonstrates that there is already an effect on Russia’s oil and gas capabilities.
The bottom line is that Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries is a calculated move that is impacting the war, and provides Ukraine with a fighting chance in the long run. By systematically hitting the economic foundations of Russia’s war effort, Ukraine is showing resilience, innovation, and strategic thinking. This also underscores the importance of the support of Ukraine’s allies, especially in financial and military aid, to push the offensive and bring an end to the war.