By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces successfully struck the Russian small missile ship “Grad” in Lake Onega, Republic of Karelia on October 4th. The strike targeted the right section of the ship’s engine compartment. The “Grad,” commissioned in December 2022, was en route from the Baltic Sea to the Caspian Sea and is equipped with the Kalibr-NK missile system. This operation followed other strikes on Russian facilities reported by the General Staff of Ukraine.
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Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces strike Russian missile ship en route from Baltic to Caspian Sea – well, that’s the headline, isn’t it? And if you’re anything like me, your first thought is probably, “Did they sink it?” We haven’t gotten the full picture yet, but the initial reports are promising. The target was a missile carrier, making its way from the Baltic Sea, a long way from Ukraine’s immediate area of operations, towards the Caspian Sea. The strike supposedly landed in the engine compartment. That’s a critical area, and damage there usually translates into a significant problem for the ship. Hopefully, this is more than just a superficial scorch mark.
Now, if you’re wondering, “How on earth do you get from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea without going around the whole of Europe?” you’re not alone. The answer lies in a series of canals and waterways, a vast, integrated system that allows ships to traverse a surprisingly long distance inland. This system, the Unified Deep Water System of European Russia, is a testament to some impressive engineering, particularly considering some of the canals’ age and depth limitations. It seems the key to this voyage is Lake Onega, which is north-east of St. Petersburg. The Baltic Sea connects through the Ladoga Lake system and into the White Sea, giving access to these inland canals. Stalin constructed many of these canals linking major watersheds, and connecting the Don and Volga rivers, and giving way to the Caspian Sea.
It’s almost hard to believe that a Russian warship, especially one as advanced as the *Grad*, could be traversing these inland routes. The *Grad* is a relatively new vessel, commissioned in late 2022, packing the Kalibr-NK missile system. But that’s what’s happening, and it opens up a whole new front, if you will, for Ukraine. It’s essentially an invitation for the Ukrainian forces to hunt them down. The limitations of the waterways, which often have a depth of only about 4 meters, mean these ships are moving slowly. This makes them far more vulnerable than if they were out in the open ocean.
This is a significant development for several reasons. Firstly, it demonstrates that even in what Russia likely considers its own domestic waters, its navy isn’t safe. The Ukrainians, through their Special Operations Forces, are proving they can strike almost anywhere. Secondly, it could potentially damage the Russian navy’s ability to project power, as the damaged ship will need to be repaired or salvaged, which is likely to take a long time. Thirdly, it’s a morale booster for the Ukrainian forces, showing that they can take the fight to the enemy, even in unexpected locations, even across the borders of their own country.
One of the interesting aspects is the strategic implications of all of this. The fact that these Russian ships are utilizing inland waterways highlights their vulnerability. The Ukrainians can anticipate and prepare for these journeys, creating ambush points and targeting choke points along the waterways. This is a far cry from operating in a heavily defended port or open ocean where there is a much larger expanse of water. This also speaks to the resourcefulness and adaptability of the Ukrainian forces. They are having to think outside the box, utilizing new tactics, and seeking out new vulnerabilities within the Russian defense systems.
The question of how this impacts the war in Ukraine, and the broader geopolitical landscape is also important. This type of strike demonstrates that NATO membership is not a necessity to show strength against Russia. The use of advanced weapons systems and the ability to successfully target a Russian vessel underscores the Ukrainian resolve and capabilities. It’s a message that the Ukrainian armed forces are a force to be reckoned with.
Given the location of the strike, many miles inland from Ukraine, it’s an impressive operation. The fact that the target was the engine compartment suggests a deliberate and targeted effort to disable the ship, potentially sinking it. This is not just about damage to the hull; it’s about disrupting Russian operations and disrupting their ability to project force. The long-term consequences of the attack could affect how Russia approaches naval movements and deployment, especially in domestic waters.
It’s hard to predict the precise impact this will have, but one thing is clear: This is a significant blow. The *Grad* is one of Russia’s newest and most advanced vessels, and this strike is proof that the Ukrainians can strike far beyond their current front lines, causing significant disruption to the Russian military machine. Whether they sink it or not, they have delivered an important message. The Russian Navy is not safe, not even in what they consider their own backyard.