By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The article highlights a rare consensus between the West and pro-Kremlin figures: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going well. Recent comments from both U.S. officials and Russian propagandists acknowledge mounting losses, lack of significant territorial gains, and potential setbacks. Some pro-Kremlin figures have admitted the front line is at a “deadlock,” with one even suggesting a new wave of mobilization might be necessary. This shift in rhetoric suggests growing discontent within Russia and a potential underestimation of the Ukrainian military’s capabilities.
Read the original article here
Even if the war in Ukraine ended today, the situation is stark. Russia faces the monumental task of rebuilding its entire fighting vehicle fleet, having burned through a significant amount of late Cold War equipment. They’ve also chewed through multiple generations of fighting men, particularly the experienced soldiers who honed their skills in previous conflicts. Beyond that, the Russian economy is crippled from various angles, including sanctions, embargoes, and extensive infrastructural damage. The former Eastern European communist bloc nations are also asserting their own independent policies, further isolating Russia.
In any postwar partnership with China, Russia will undoubtedly be the junior partner. Outside of nuclear weapons, China outclasses them in nearly every conceivable way. Furthermore, the war has inadvertently spurred a race for nations to join NATO and/or forge security agreements, directly contradicting Russia’s stated goals. Arguably, Russia is in a significantly weaker position now than if they had simply consolidated their 2014 gains in Crimea and maintained the conflict in Luhansk/Donetsk as a proxy war. Even if Russia were to achieve significant territorial gains in the coming months, long-term occupation and control over those lands seems impossible. Recall that the Soviet Union collapsed merely two-and-a-half years after its voluntary withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The writing is on the wall. If Putin wants to survive, he needs to find an exit strategy while he still can. The longer this war continues, the more likely he is to meet the fate of figures like Mussolini, Ceaușescu, or Gaddafi. The reality is, Russia is going to lose this war, and a collapse is almost inevitable. The key question now is whether Ukraine can reclaim its territory. This isn’t about “news,” it’s about propaganda.
It seems that everyone, including the Russian propagandists, knows Russia is losing. The whole world sees it. Even a “victory” at this point would be largely symbolic. Russia has never won a war as an aggressor. Historically, the strength of the Russian army lies in its ability to defend and then counterattack, as seen with Operation Bagration.
The gains made in Crimea in 2014 proved to be a money pit for Putin and his cronies. They ran out of natural water, and had to truck water in for millions of dollars a year. This broader war seemed inevitable, but it’s clear that the Russians were not adequately prepared or planned to take the rest of the country. It’s quite ironic: Putin claims that NATO expansionism is the problem, yet his actions have directly encouraged more countries to join NATO.
One thing that is for certain is that reparations to Ukraine for all the damage done and the return of kidnapped children will be necessary. War crimes trials are likely to follow. Russia’s elite Spetsnaz forces, touted as elite, were rendered ineffective within weeks of the war starting. They lost most of their best operators early on and then had to use reserves and instructors to infiltrate Kyiv, with disastrous results. The Spetsnaz forces fielded afterward lacked combat experience.
The loss of experienced operators is just the beginning. Russia is forced to fight asymmetrically because of its losses and their leaders still try to fight with “combined arms”. No remaining Russian officer has any clue how to deploy under any conditions. It will take a decade or more to field a professional army again. The intense corruption of Putin’s kleptocracy has been a huge downfall in this war, given how much money has been siphoned off for training, equipment, and technology. It’s worth noting that in the early days of the war, some vehicles were using tires that were over 30 years old.
The situation in places like Mariupol, which Russia captured long ago, foreshadows what’s to come. Russia is already doing what they did in other cities. Forcing citizens to get a Russian passport and then putting Russian history and language in schools. If Ukraine could create economic problems for the Russian oligarchs, that would be a smart move. Returning disgruntled troops from Ukraine is the greatest threat Putin faces, meaning a way out of this war is almost impossible. Russia’s main strength is its rail lines. If Ukraine receives enough funding, its production capacity could shift from weakening Russian resupply to crippling it.
The higher-ups probably believed they were adequately prepared, but corruption and cover-ups down the chain of command meant they weren’t aware of the military’s actual condition. Imagine that, a desalination plant would have been far cheaper than this war. The VDV, another elite force, also suffered devastating losses early on. Reportedly, of the 60,000 they had before the war, they lost 15,000 men.
The VDV was stripped of its elite status in war planning in 2023. There’s also been a clear increase in the number of oligarchs “retiring.” The training music video is a sight to behold, the same mistakes that were made by the Nazis. The rail itself is dirt cheap, it is the rolling stock that costs the big money. We have a lot more to spend than Russia does.
If they had simply continued their efforts after taking Crimea, they might have stood a chance. They spent eight years forcing the Ukrainians to fight in Donbas, and then were surprised that the Ukrainians knew how to fight. They nearly succeeded though. If they had captured Zelensky, Ukraine would have surrendered, or if Zelensky was weak enough to flee or surrender. They significantly underestimated Zelensky’s resolve. I don’t think anyone expected he would stay and lead such a fierce resistance for so long!