By Matt Underwood Russia’s latest big Ukraine offensive gains next to nothing, again, and the grim reality is becoming clearer with each passing month. The much-vaunted Russian summer offensive, which began with such fanfare, has largely stalled, and the price they’re paying for it is astronomical. It’s a strategic disaster unfolding in slow motion, and the numbers tell the story of a military struggling to achieve even the most modest of goals.
The battlefield itself provides the starkest evidence. Despite launching waves of attacks, Russia has managed to seize a negligible amount of Ukrainian territory. We’re talking about a mere fraction of a percent, a statistic that hardly justifies the immense human and material cost. The frontlines are largely static, with key cities holding firm against relentless assaults. The maps of tracked fires speak volumes, showing intense fighting across the entire frontline, but without significant Russian breakthroughs.
The human cost, however, is staggering. Our estimates suggest that Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties this year alone, with a substantial portion of those being fatalities. The losses are so profound that they represent a major drain on Russia’s military strength. It is a war of attrition where Russia is losing at a very fast pace. And the losses are not just about soldiers; the equipment losses are also significant, including tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, and aircraft. The sheer volume of material destroyed underscores the intensity of the fighting and the difficulty Russia faces in sustaining its offensive.
The reasons for this failure are multifaceted. The Ukrainian military, having adapted to the situation, has dug in and adopted a strategy of maximizing Russian casualties. This is a deliberate tactic, and it appears to be working. Russia is finding it incredibly hard to penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines. The increased use of drone surveillance and long-range precision weaponry makes it almost suicidal for forces to mass in the open. Incremental gains are still possible, but only at a horrific cost, as Russia has to utilize tactics such as sending small groups of men into the “kill zone” to try and stake forward positions. This is a challenging environment for Russian forces to fight in, even under a defensive posture.
Moreover, Ukraine’s allies are playing a crucial role. Western aid and support have been instrumental in helping Ukraine withstand the Russian offensive. This sustained assistance ensures that Ukraine has the resources it needs to keep fighting and to maintain its defensive posture. The tide has turned. The Ukraine’s economy is expanding, while Russia’s economy will be slowing due to the constant drain on resources.
The economic implications for Russia are also becoming increasingly apparent. The sanctions and the loss of export revenue are putting pressure on the Russian economy. The fact that Russia is now importing refined products, due to their own diminished refining capacity, is a particularly telling sign of the strain. This creates vulnerabilities that Ukraine can exploit by targeting energy infrastructure, further reducing Russia’s ability to wage war.
The future of the conflict remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Russia’s current strategy is not working. The offensive has failed to deliver the decisive victory that Putin seeks. The situation appears to be in favor of Ukraine, and with continued Western support, Russia may find itself in a very difficult position.
Looking ahead, the long-term implications are particularly interesting. Manpower will become a more serious constraint for Russia than for Ukraine. The number of men available to be sacrificed on the fields of eastern Ukraine is limited, and the cost of replacing those losses is steadily increasing.
The war may well grind on at enormous cost, with Russia gaining ground only slowly. However, the cumulative effect of these failures could be devastating for Russia. A sudden collapse in the Russian war economy, or on the battlefield, is no longer outside the realm of possibility. If the recent trends continue, 2026 will be a very interesting year.