By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In September, Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine dramatically decreased, with forces capturing 44% less land compared to August, totaling approximately 259 square kilometers. This gain, which represents only 0.04% of Ukraine’s total area, is the smallest monthly advance since May. Key losses for Ukraine were concentrated near Novopavlivka in Donetsk Oblast, a challenging front line, and heavy fighting persisted around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukrainian forces have been pushing back Russian troops in the Pokrovsk direction, reclaiming villages and slowing the enemy’s advance.
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Russian territorial gains in Ukraine dropped sharply in September, monitoring group says, and that’s both an uplifting and a depressing thought.
The way we’re seeing it, the advances are now measured in hundreds of square kilometers. That’s progress, in a way. But, and it’s a big but, it still comes at a terrible cost: hundreds of Ukrainian lives. It’s hard not to feel a deep sense of respect for the Ukrainian people who are fighting so hard for every inch of their land, willing to give everything. You know, they would gladly die for every inch.
It’s clear that Russia’s momentum has stalled. They seem to be running out of steam, perhaps even running out of gas, so to speak. The earlier predictions that it would take Russia centuries and millions of casualties to capture Ukraine, as one source put it, seem even more accurate now. Russia is now likely going to lose this war. History tells us that Russia has already suffered higher losses in this conflict than the USSR did in Afghanistan, a war that eventually led to the Soviet Union’s collapse. This could suggest that Russia is now on the path to a similar brutal fall. The Russian people, unfortunately, seem blinded by propaganda and may have no idea what’s coming.
It really seems like Putin has consistently made the wrong choices. He had a chance to achieve an advantageous peace treaty in his favor early on, but he let that opportunity slip away, choosing to bomb civilians instead. Now, it seems that the winds of history are blowing in a different direction. Maybe he was scared of the window of opportunity closing. It makes you wonder if the military’s inability to exploit breakthroughs is directly related to his leadership, which is more like that of a mafia boss.
It’s not just about territorial gains; it’s about understanding the dynamics of attritional warfare. The Ukrainian defenses have hardened over time, especially in places like Pokrovsk, making progress slow and difficult. Once cities like Avdiivka and Bakhmut fell, the Russians moved on to the next line of defense. The challenge for Ukraine now is that the older, more robust defenses are gone, and the newer ones may not be as well fortified.
The primary goal for Russia was likely always the east of Ukraine, where most of the ethnic Russians, industry, and resources are located. Returning Ukraine to its former status as a vassal state and capturing the coast are also important objectives. The use of a war economy is simply not sustainable.
The current situation is also affected by the nature of modern warfare. The drone war has changed everything, with both sides relying less on armored vehicles, which are big targets, and more on smaller, more agile forces using ATVs and motorcycles. This requires more precision in targeting but makes it harder to achieve significant breakthroughs. Ukraine’s fighting abilities, together with the support from NATO and the US, have allowed them to set traps for the Russian forces.
It’s clear that Ukraine is receiving massive support from more powerful countries, which is very much in line with their national goals. However, these goals may be very different from Ukraine’s. The assistance Ukraine is receiving is a lot better. The situation in Ukraine, from the support from outside powers, is a proxy war, albeit one very different from the one Russia may have had in mind.