By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On the evening of October 20th, explosions occurred at oil refineries in both Romania and Hungary, raising concerns given their connections to Russia. The Danube Refinery in Szazhalombatta, Hungary, experienced a fire following an explosion, potentially leading to a temporary shutdown while the cause is investigated. Simultaneously, the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Romania, owned by a subsidiary of the Russian company Lukoil, also saw an explosion, with local authorities considering various possibilities, including deliberate acts. The extent of the damage and the duration of repairs, especially at the Hungarian refinery, are still being assessed.
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Hungarian, Romanian oil refineries tied to Russia hit by blasts is definitely a situation that sparks immediate intrigue. These incidents, happening seemingly close together, naturally raise a lot of questions about what’s really going on. The fact that the refineries in question are linked to Russia, either through ownership or the processing of Russian crude oil, only heightens the suspicion surrounding them.
The Lukoil explosion in Romania, for example, took place during cleanup work at a refinery tank. It appears to have been an accident, with an injured worker resulting from the incident. Given the refinery’s history of safety issues, it seems quite probable that this was a result of poor safety protocols, perhaps even stemming from careless smoking. It’s difficult to see how this could be anything but an accident.
Then there’s the Hungarian situation, where the refinery, though not directly owned by a Russian entity like Lukoil, processes Russian oil, and also reported an incident during maintenance. Both events happening on the same day can be more than just coincidence. The timing is certainly curious and makes one wonder if there are more complex factors at play. Could they be related, even if indirectly?
Considering the context, it’s hard to imagine Ukraine being behind either of these events. Attacking these refineries would be a risky move, potentially leading to civilian casualties and a severe backlash, given Ukraine’s dependence on Western support. Also, it’s worth noting the varying ties of these refineries to Russia. The Romanian one is owned by a Lukoil subsidiary. The Hungarian one receives oil through the Druzhba pipeline, showing a different kind of reliance.
Given that these refineries are linked to Russia, the EU needs to take a critical look at doing business with them. The idea of these incidents being some kind of attack, perhaps by Ukraine, seems unlikely. Instead, human error or poor maintenance, given their maintenance schedules at the time, seem to be more likely causes.
The potential for any country to utilize such incidents for their own agenda is a concern, so any claims of it being an attack need to be verified. The possibility that Hungary might try to invoke Article 4 of NATO, which involves consultations among allies, does raise interesting questions, even if unlikely.
From a geopolitical perspective, it is important to remember that Romania is a strategically important NATO ally, especially because of its border with Moldavia and the implications for the future of Transnistria. And contrary to initial impressions, Romania has been helping Ukraine logistically throughout the war. Romania has its own challenges, but it remains committed to its support for Ukraine, at least for the foreseeable future.