By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Concerns are rising in Taipei that Canada may back away from a previously agreed-upon economic cooperation framework, potentially jeopardizing the trade deal. This hesitation from the Canadian government, under Mark Carney, has prompted calls for immediate action from Taiwanese officials. The current global landscape, complicated by U.S. tariffs and increasing pressure from China, presents considerable obstacles to Taiwan’s efforts to expand its international trade relationships. While progress has been slow, Taiwan has seen a positive reception from the Philippines, demonstrating a willingness to engage despite broader diplomatic challenges.
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Taiwan is understandably concerned that Canada might abandon a potential trade agreement. This worry stems from a complex geopolitical situation where Canada finds itself straddling the interests of major global players, primarily the United States and China. The potential trade agreement with Taiwan, while offering economic benefits, is caught in the crossfire of these larger strategic considerations.
The heart of the issue lies in Canada’s need to diversify its trade partners, particularly moving away from an over-reliance on the United States. However, the reality is that China is also a significant trading partner. This creates a delicate balancing act. Embracing a closer relationship with Taiwan, a strong proponent of democracy and technology, could potentially strain relations with China, which views Taiwan as a renegade province. Conversely, prioritizing China may leave Taiwan feeling abandoned, despite the economic advantages of a trade agreement.
Canada’s position is further complicated by the unpredictable nature of US trade policies. Agreements can be made and then swiftly overturned, leading to instability and uncertainty. This has led many to question the reliability of the United States as a long-term trade partner, making the prospect of diversifying trade all the more appealing. Yet, choosing new trading partners doesn’t solve the issues.
The US has a track record of leveraging trade for political and economic gain, and there’s concern that China would do the same. This dynamic forces Canada to carefully weigh the risks and rewards of each option. The United States has been known to weaponize trade, which is concerning.
It’s worth noting that the US isn’t the only one that weaponizes trade. China is just as likely to do so, which means that Canada is potentially just swapping one controlling trade partner for another. It’s difficult to tell how the relationship would evolve, but history has shown that both the US and China are willing to put their own interests ahead of their trade partners.
The potential for China to use trade as a tool for economic manipulation is a real concern. This isn’t to say that China’s actions are inevitable, but rather that it’s a part of China’s strategy.
Moreover, Canada’s auto industry has close ties with that of the US, as well as a dependence on the US consumer market. This makes any trade decisions that affect the auto industry particularly sensitive. Any attempt to grow a relationship with Taiwan, could therefore create additional tensions.
While the US may not have the same level of consistency regarding its trade agreements, China could prove to be unpredictable as well. It makes it difficult for Canada to know which trading partner will ultimately benefit its interests. Canada is essentially trapped between two powerful nations.
Canada’s choices are further complicated by the fact that both major trading partners have a history of prioritizing their own interests over those of their partners. This means that any trade agreement could be subject to sudden changes or political pressure.
The idea of leveraging both the US and China to Canada’s advantage is appealing. If Canada can play one against the other, it might be able to secure more favorable terms in trade agreements. Building up trade relationships with Europe and other Asian countries can also serve to reduce reliance on either of the two major economic powers.
Ultimately, Canada’s dilemma boils down to a question of navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. With a good trading partner in Taiwan, it would mean straining relations with China. It’s a tough call for Canada.
In essence, the situation leaves Taiwan feeling that its interests may be secondary to Canada’s broader strategic goals, and this is the crux of their concern.