By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Leaked U.S. documents reveal that while Arab states publicly condemned the Gaza war, they secretly expanded security cooperation with Israel. This cooperation, facilitated by the U.S. military, included planning meetings in multiple Arab countries and focused on countering the threat from Iran. Documents show the development of a “Regional Security Construct” involving Israel and six Arab nations, with the goal of coordinating air defense and sharing intelligence, although this did not prevent an Israeli strike in Qatar. Despite the growing security ties, tensions remained, with some Arab states hesitant to commit to military forces in Gaza, highlighting the complex dynamics of regional security.
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So, the whispers we’re hearing about Arab states deepening military ties with Israel while simultaneously denouncing the Gaza war? Well, that’s not exactly breaking news to anyone with even a basic understanding of Middle Eastern politics, particularly the complicated dynamics within the Islamic world. It’s almost expected. It’s a complex dance, a carefully choreographed balancing act.
The reality, as some are suggesting, is that these Arab states aren’t unified simply because they share a religion. There are deeper, often unspoken, motivations at play. Some speculate that certain Arab leaders secretly wish Israel would just go ahead and annex Gaza. This way, they wouldn’t have to perform this tightrope walk of appearing “against” Israel while, in reality, wanting to build stronger relationships. Remember, many of these leaders may actually view Shia groups with more animosity than they view Jewish people.
Let’s be honest, Israel has a highly advanced economy and military capabilities that makes it one of, if not the largest, economies in the Middle East. The leaders of these countries recognize the pragmatic benefits of closer ties, especially the potential for economic partnerships and access to advanced technologies. But, they also remember the Arab Spring, and they’re very aware of the need to avoid the fate of leaders like Gaddafi. So, publicly, they offer criticism of Israel. It’s a familiar pattern: leaders versus the “Arab street.”
The leaders see which way the wind is blowing, where the profits are, and they’re motivated by those considerations. The leaders also understand that they need to give the appearance of supporting their populations who generally have a more traditional view.
It’s as if many sane people don’t like terrorists. Many Arab states have banned the Muslim Brotherhood, seeing them as a threat. Most Arab leaders remember the past, and they’ve learned from experience. Shared religious beliefs don’t always translate into shared values or interests. The Middle East is much more complex than some might believe. For example, Qatar has even been accused of bribing Israeli officials, demonstrating that their so-called support for the Palestinians is often performative.
The geopolitical landscape here is determined by a few key factors. One is the relative decline in the influence of major world powers, particularly the US, which has become increasingly unpredictable in its foreign policy. The Cold War dynamic, where local powers could play the US against the Soviets, is gone, and Russia isn’t a reliable substitute. Europe is essentially a non-factor in terms of projecting power. Even China may not be a major player.
Secondly, there’s the rise of regional powers. The three main players here are Turkey, Iran, and Israel, and none of them are Arab. These powers are vying to fill the void, each with their own agendas. The Arab states themselves aren’t really in a position to stand up to them. So, they need to come to an accommodation. But with whom, and how?
The problem is that the geopolitical needs of these Arab states often clash with the prevailing sentiment on the “street,” where there’s often a strong dislike for Israel. However, in practical terms, Israel poses a threat only to its immediate neighbors, with whom it already has reasonable agreements. It’s the other regional powers, Turkey and especially Iran, that present the biggest threats.
This is a reality that many leaders acknowledge even while they proclaim otherwise. The Sunni-Shia divide is significant. The current conflict in Gaza may actually have had an upside for some Arab states, as it showcased Israel’s ability to deal with Iranian proxies. However, publicly, they can’t express any satisfaction, as their own populations are very sensitive to the situation in Gaza.
The episode highlighted several things for the Gulf states, particularly: Western public pressure to influence events on the ground is often ineffective. The Israeli military has proven its regional power status, thanks to its advanced weaponry and security service. The military capabilities of Iranian proxies are often overestimated.
So, what does a Gulf Arab nation do? The obvious answer is to leverage Israel’s military power to keep Iran in check, while managing domestic sentiment by publicly condemning Israeli actions, even though it means little in reality. Some may even offer support for Hamas to signal their “loyalty.”
However, this strategy depends on how much Israel is willing to tolerate. They might demand more concessions from the Arab nations in exchange for protection. Israel could also demand a change to their attitude towards the countries.
Another question is how much Israel actually relies on the US. While the US provides significant military aid, the amount isn’t necessarily decisive. Israel has developed its own strong economy, and the US isn’t as much in the driver’s seat as some people think. Israel’s reliance on US suppliers could also backfire on the US.
Politics, as always, is a dirty game, and this should come as no surprise. The world should thank Israel for its efforts to wipe out terrorists. It’s often all for show. Some argue that Iran is the common enemy that they share with Spain. Arab states continue to demonstrate that they are not democracies. The monarchies in the Gulf, Jordan, Morocco, and the dictatorship in Egypt are sustained by billions in grants and arms sales from the US and EU. This explains why Egypt has the highest number of political prisoners in the region.
The question that Israeli planners are asking is when will the US and EU stop the cash flows to the Middle East’s authoritarian governments? As soon as they do, Israel will most likely undertake a much larger campaign.
The hypocrisy is also clear. The Sunni-Shia divide is probably the most important thing to understand when you try to understand what’s happening in the Middle East. Over 80-90% of the victims of Islamic terrorism are Muslim. One of the things that a large portion of the middle east wants from Israel isn’t defense tech, but they want its help with water desalinization, of which Israel leads the world.
Israel has built an impressive economy despite having fewer natural resources than its neighbors. The leaders are the ones who are keeping their populations trapped in the past. The democratically elected government of Egypt was overthrown by the military.
These are the realities that play into the ongoing relationship between the Arab states and Israel. The regimes in the Middle East are mainly trying to stay in power. Their public messaging has to align with the anti-Israel views of their populations, but access to Israeli technology and weaponry solidifies their grip on power. Religion can often be a veil that obscures the real drivers of conflict and power politics, which is often just simple nationalism. The Arab bloc is slowly starting to realize that they are better off with the Israelis on their side.