By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Recent drone incursions across Europe have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to warn that Russia is seeking to escalate its aggression. Addressing a summit of European leaders, Zelensky emphasized the incidents are a clear signal that Russia aims to destabilize the West and Europe. The summit, held in Copenhagen, addressed concerns about potential spillover from the war in Ukraine, spurred by drone sightings and aerial incursions in several European countries. While Zelensky issued this warning, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed the accusations but stated that Russia would respond to the growing militarization of Europe.
Read the original article here
Ukraine’s Zelensky warns Europe that Russia is looking to ‘escalate’ war, a statement that sets off alarm bells across the continent. The question that naturally arises is, what exactly is Russia, and more specifically, Putin, hoping to achieve? From a purely strategic standpoint, it’s difficult to see a clear advantage for Russia in escalating the conflict. The situation in Ukraine is already a brutal stalemate, resulting in tragic loss of life on both sides, with no clear victor in sight.
The potential for escalation carries severe risks for Russia. However, it’s important to consider the possibility that this may be a calculated move, a tactic of desperation. If Putin is seen as losing to Ukraine alone, it undermines his authority within Russia. It might be more palatable to frame it as a struggle against a broader, more powerful enemy – the entire West or NATO. This narrative, historically employed by autocratic leaders like Hitler, could potentially save his reputation, and even his position, with the Russian public.
Putin is undoubtedly aware that directly engaging NATO would be a disaster. NATO’s military capabilities dwarf Russia’s. Therefore, a likely strategy involves provoking European nations through hybrid warfare tactics like cyberattacks and drone incursions. The recent drone sightings in Germany, echoing warnings from Biden before the invasion, could be a sign of this. The aim could be to destabilize the situation, causing fear and hesitation in Europe, which would lead to a reluctance to continue supporting Ukraine. This could also lead to a call for a ceasefire that would freeze the conflict in place, essentially allowing Russia to retain its gains.
A key element in this potential escalation strategy is the use of fear. Russia could attempt to make Europe fear direct conflict, potentially using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons to achieve its goals. This would force countries to hesitate and think twice before intervening, which aligns with a broader plan to divide and conquer the EU. If Russia were to bring NATO into the fight, they could immediately call for a ceasefire. This strategy makes sense given the current Russian situation.
The war has taken its toll on Russia, creating a war-time economy, straining resources, and depleting its stockpile of Cold War equipment. If the war were to end and cease to escalate, it will have a massive detrimental impact on the Russian economy. It would be politically damaging if Russia lost the war in Ukraine. To keep the Russian public at bay it would make propaganda much easier if NATO were the adversary.
The key here is that Putin is in a corner. An escalation could provide him with an opportunity to shift the narrative. Instead of losing to Ukraine, he can claim to be fighting a powerful NATO, which he could be able to spin it as a victory in Russia. It would allow Russia to withdraw from the war and provide the Russian public with a cover for its withdrawal. It might also give him a reason to mobilize conscripts en masse.
This is essentially a high-stakes gamble, but it’s a gamble born of desperation. Russia prefers to lose to NATO than to Ukraine, as it would save face. This could also be used as an excuse for declaring a nation-wide mobilization to maintain control over Russia.
Ultimately, whether or not Russia intends to escalate, the warning from Zelensky should be taken seriously. It is a critical time for Europe to remain vigilant and united in its support for Ukraine. It’s a time to stay wise to Russian tactics and to continue to provide support to Ukraine by all means necessary. Europe must not take the bait and instead, act as a check in this conflict, as a means to support Ukraine and defend its own interests.