By John Q. Hosedrinker 
President Xi Jinping is urging the United States to alter its long-standing description of its position on Taiwan’s independence. This demand, if met, would represent a significant diplomatic victory for China. Beijing has requested that the U.S. government formally state its “opposition” to Taiwan’s independence. This information was revealed by a source familiar with the matter, who preferred to remain anonymous.
Read the original article here
Xi Jinping is currently pressing Donald Trump to publicly declare opposition to Taiwan’s independence, a move that represents a significant shift in China’s diplomatic strategy. The core of this push revolves around a key difference in wording. While the Biden administration stated the U.S. “does not support” Taiwan’s independence, China wants Trump to explicitly “oppose” it, thus strengthening its position on the global stage.
It’s no secret that Trump is known for his, shall we say, “flexible” approach to foreign policy and his susceptibility to financial incentives. Many speculate, based on historical patterns, that China might offer lucrative deals or even gifts to sway his stance on Taiwan. The prospect of Trump, in a second term, conceding to China’s demands is a concern, especially given his perceived lack of deep understanding of US policy towards Taiwan.
Of course, we must acknowledge the history. Taiwan has, in all but name, been an independent entity for decades. The People’s Republic of China has never held territorial or governmental control over the island. Yet, a large part of the world seems to be hesitant to acknowledge this simple reality, and Xi is trying to use Trump’s well-known traits to bring the US into line.
From a strategic standpoint, China’s interest in Taiwan isn’t just political; it is heavily dependent on the semiconductor industry. The control of this critical tech would provide an enormous advantage in technology across the board. The economic implications of a confrontation are huge. The US economy relies heavily on Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing. If China were to take control, the damage would be devastating.
It’s worth noting that the US position has always been complex, and the call to “oppose” Taiwan’s independence wouldn’t necessarily be a radical change. The United States has, since the 1970s, operated on a policy of “strategic ambiguity” about what it would do if China attacked Taiwan. This means the US doesn’t explicitly say whether it would defend Taiwan, keeping China guessing and theoretically deterring an invasion.
However, the implications of a more definitive statement from Trump could be significant. It might lead to a loss of US influence in Asia, a collapse of the US security umbrella, and could embolden China’s territorial ambitions. It’s a move that could effectively greenlight China’s long-term strategy for reunification.
The timing of this push from China is also worth considering. Some experts suggest that China might be waiting for a specific moment of vulnerability in the US. This could involve economic downturns, involvement in other global conflicts, or even political instability within the US. They may also feel that a weakened US might be less willing or able to intervene militarily if China were to take action against Taiwan.
Yet, the situation is more complex. China is aware of the potential dangers. Military conflict with the US would be incredibly costly. The US maintains a significant advantage in air and naval power, making a direct invasion a risky proposition. China may be hoping the US won’t get involved or will be dissuaded if things happen quickly.
Furthermore, it’s easy to project our Western, political motivations onto this issue, but from China’s perspective, reclaiming Taiwan is not simply a tactical maneuver. It’s a core element of their national identity and historical narrative. It’s more than just about politics; it’s about fulfilling a historical destiny. The debate is not if, but how and when it will happen.
There is also a ticking time bomb for China. Declining birth rates are beginning to take effect on their economy and military. Not enough working-age men to support the needs of the country means that they have less time to act.
Ultimately, whether Trump will yield to China’s pressure remains to be seen. But this situation highlights the high stakes and the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. It is a moment that warrants close attention as it could have far-reaching consequences for the United States, Taiwan, and the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.