By John Q. Hosedrinker 
On Friday, September 5th, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems reportedly struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Ryazan region, with preliminary information indicating no casualties or damage to residential buildings. Regional governor Pavel Malkov confirmed that drone debris fell on the industrial site, while also stating that eight UAVs were shot down by air defense and electronic warfare systems. Explosions were also reported in the Lipetsk region, although Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed 92 Ukrainian drones overnight. Attacks on such targets are intended to hinder Russia’s fuel supply for military operations, and this incident follows reports of Russian attacks on civilians.
Read the original article here
Ukrainian drones hitting the Ryazan oil refinery is a significant development, and the initial reports indicate this action is already having a ripple effect. Preliminary information suggests that while the attack was substantial, it fortunately caused no casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure. However, the impact on the refinery itself is the key takeaway. This refinery’s strategic importance stems from its capacity to process a staggering 6 million tons of fuel annually. Crippling such a vital production hub has direct implications for Russia’s war efforts.
Disrupting this level of fuel production has a far-reaching effect on the Russian military. Fuel is the lifeblood of modern warfare, powering tanks, aircraft, vehicles, and support equipment. By targeting the refineries, Ukraine is essentially working to slow down the machinery of war. The resulting shortages and logistical headaches can make the execution of military operations significantly more difficult and complex.
This strategy could also have severe economic consequences for Russia. If the Ryazan refinery, or others targeted, can’t refine fuel, Russia will have less product to ship out. And if Russia can’t ship product, they don’t get the money they need to continue their war. Hitting the refineries directly impacts the nation’s ability to fund its military operations, potentially draining its financial resources.
The potential for wider societal impact is another important aspect of the refinery attacks. The Russian government might try to prioritize military fuel needs. To avoid military shortages, however, Russia might divert fuel away from civilian use. This could lead to higher fuel prices, shortages at gas stations, and potentially create economic hardship for average Russians. Such circumstances could erode public support for the war, and government policies.
While some might joke about alternative means of transport, like relying on pack animals, the reality is that any military logistical solution is complex. Even if relying on livestock, those animals require feed, which is often grown with fuel-powered machinery. These animals would then need fuel to get the feed to them or to transport them and be fed. It shows you the fundamental dependence of the Russian military on their ability to produce and move fuel.
Reports of the Ryazan refinery attack come at a time when Ukraine has been targeting several Russian refineries. The cumulative impact of these attacks is increasing pressure on Russia’s fuel supply, possibly causing shortages across the board. The numbers cited suggest Ukraine has already managed to knock out a significant percentage of Russia’s refinery output.
Some speculate about Russia’s ability to source fuel from other countries like China or India. But the current economic realities suggest a difficult road ahead. Russia’s economy heavily relies on the export of mineral fuels. Although China and India are major importers of these products, their own domestic demand and existing supply chains make it unlikely that they can seamlessly compensate for the shortfall in Russia’s production in the long run.
The attacks on the refineries have shown to potentially hit Putin where it hurts the most. If you can’t get the oil refined, you can’t ship it. If you can’t ship it, you don’t get the money. If you don’t get the money, it makes it harder to fund the war, and sustain the war.