By Matt Underwood Russia’s Pokrovsk offensive collapses into chaos — Ukrainian forces seize the moment and liberate Udachne. It seems like the situation around Pokrovsk has taken a significant turn, and the news is, well, promising, though maybe not quite a complete collapse. Udachne’s liberation is certainly a victory for the Ukrainian forces, potentially shoring up their flank. But let’s be realistic; the fighting in the South and East remains fierce, and any truly decisive shift probably needs more positive developments in the North.
There’s a sense, a feeling that this was somewhat inevitable. The Russian economy, it appears, is struggling to adequately supply the front lines. The combined effects of sanctions and the Ukrainian’s sabotage missions are seemingly starting to bite. It’s a grim reality, but it seems Russia isn’t training its soldiers effectively anymore, which has forced them to rely on a meat-wave strategy hoping the Ukrainians will run out of ammunition. The lack of proper training suggests that these troops are unlikely to make a difference.
The morale boost for Ukrainian forces from the liberation of Udachne has been significant, there’s no doubt about that. The determination and resilience of the Ukrainian people are truly amazing. Their will to survive is a testament to their spirit.
The stories from the front are harrowing and revealing, it’s hard to believe how little regard for human life Russia has. One particularly disturbing report detailed Russian soldiers sent into a sewage pipe, unaware it was blocked off. They were forced to swim through sewage before meeting a terrible end, a stark illustration of the brutal circumstances.
It’s clear that the offensive to take Pokrovsk has largely culminated for the Russians. The initial “breakthrough” north of the city has resulted in a major setback for what was already a weakening push. Ukrainian strikes on logistics and assets have added to Russia’s problems.
The situation in the Sumy region is also creating difficulties for the Russians, with Ukrainian forces making flanking strikes into Russia itself. Instead of sending more resources there, reports suggest Russia is diverting troops to support the Pokrovsk offensive, which seems like a risky move.
The anticipation is high for a period where Ukrainian gains surpass those of Russia, and this won’t be a sudden rout. Ukraine is honing its skills in clearing out Russian forces, while Russia is losing its ability to maneuver safely due to heavy armor losses. It’s a slow, grinding process, and the long road to reclaiming the country will be incredibly challenging given the obstacles.
The presence of landmines, traps, and all sorts of defensive measures means that even after the last Russian soldier is gone, the clearing process will likely take decades. The effects of this war will linger.
The narrative that Russia struggles to supply the front line due to a lack of fuel is not as simple as it sounds. The initial problems weren’t due to sanctions, but rather, initial corruption at the start of the war. Sanctions are showing their effects, but elsewhere. The overextension of Russian forces, surrounded on all sides, and the miscalculation of Ukrainian resistance have caused supply problems and difficulties on the front lines.
Fuel shortages at the front lines are less of an issue as they are prioritized but the civilian population experiences a fuel crisis. The sanctions, however, have a devastating effect in other areas, making it much harder to repair Russia’s oil infrastructure. The specialised equipment needed for this, some of which may only be manufactured by a single Western company, or require reverse engineering by a Chinese company.
The impact of sanctions is hindering Russia’s military capabilities by raising costs and straining the economy, in spite of their evasion efforts. The sanctions limit the amount of resources available on the front lines. Russia is in deep trouble, and is buying oil reserves from Belarus.
Even the experiences of those defending Normandy in WWII illustrate the devastating cost of war, and the human toll, no matter the side, which continues to be felt. They couldn’t keep up with the waves of enemy troops, even with replacement barrels for the machine guns and ammunition.