By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that high-ranking Russian officials are escalating threats against Finland, mirroring tactics used before the invasion of Ukraine. Key figures like Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Medvedev have made alarming statements, with Lavrov accusing Finland of shedding its neutrality and Medvedev falsely suggesting Finland is preparing to attack Russia. The ISW believes this rhetoric, similar to the pre-invasion strategy in Ukraine, is a coordinated Kremlin effort. This developing situation warrants close monitoring, particularly given Finland’s recent NATO membership and Article 5’s commitment to collective defense.
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Russia threatens NATO neighbor with “Ukraine playbook”
So, let’s talk about this. It seems the Kremlin is at it again, rattling sabers and tossing around threats, this time aimed squarely at Finland. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has flagged this, noting that top Russian officials are using language remarkably similar to the pre-invasion rhetoric used before the invasion of Ukraine. That’s not exactly a comforting sign, especially when the target is now a NATO ally.
The core of the concern, of course, is the so-called “Ukraine playbook.” What does that entail? Well, according to the current sentiment, it seems to mean a “three-day operation” that stretches into a multi-year conflict, resulting in a significant loss of life, depleting military resources, and ultimately embarrassing the aggressor. We’re talking about a scenario where a country’s military is bogged down, its economy suffers, and it’s forced to rely on allies while its strategic assets go up in smoke. Not exactly a winning formula. It’s like trying the same trick, expecting a different result.
And let’s be clear: Finland is not Ukraine. The topography is different, the military preparedness is on a whole other level, and, crucially, Finland is now protected by NATO. This is a significant factor. Any miscalculation by Russia in this situation could have serious and immediate consequences. Finland has been preparing for a Russian invasion for decades, and they’ve got the military setup to back it up. Remember that the border is a modern Maginot line? Any Russian tanks or infantry are going to meet a very swift and harsh response. And let’s not forget, Finland’s military is modern and well-equipped, having been preparing for this specific threat since the end of WWII.
The Finnish military’s strategic positioning is also key. With every square meter of the border zeroed in by artillery, any tanks that get off track are immediately shut down. Plus, Finnish fighters would be allowed to land on Swedish airfields, making them all but untouchable until they reach Finnish airspace. Even without NATO backing, Finland would receive instant air support from Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, alongside rapid overland supplies and armored vehicles within days and weeks.
The response from the public, at least judging by what’s being said, is pretty nonchalant. It’s almost a case of “been there, seen that, got the t-shirt.” There is a certain lack of surprise, with some even considering it a joke, given Russia’s ongoing struggles in Ukraine. A ground invasion of Finland, given the terrain and military readiness, looks like a very poor strategic choice. It’s hard not to see the situation as a case of Russia threatening a neighbor that’s been ready for this possibility for years, and is now part of the largest defense alliance in the world, while currently being bogged down in another conflict.
The general consensus is that Russia is in no position to start another war. Some see this as a desperate attempt to save face, a tactic that could backfire spectacularly. The underlying sentiment seems to be a mix of anger, frustration, and a healthy dose of skepticism towards Russia’s capabilities. And let’s not forget, Finland has a long history of tense relations with Russia, and there’s no shortage of historical reasons for the Finnish people to harbor a deep-seated distrust. This history has resulted in a deep-seated preparation and strong defense.
It’s also apparent that nobody is afraid. Finns understand that there are multiple defense layers and that the geography and the military are ready to go to war.