By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to Keith Kellogg, the US President’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, Vladimir Putin likely understands that Russia will ultimately lose the war against Ukraine. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, Kellogg indicated that Moscow’s options are dwindling, while Ukraine and its Western allies remain united. He also suggested that NATO would respond decisively to airspace violations, drawing from past incidents. Kellogg further stated that meaningful negotiations can only begin once Russia faces increased economic pressure, particularly through the reduction of its oil revenue.
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Kellogg: Even Putin Admits to Himself That Ukraine Can’t Be Defeated
Let’s be frank; when you get down to it, it’s a pretty serious situation that’s unfolding, even if we’re discussing it in the context of a cereal company. The general consensus, which is echoed by many military experts, seems to be that Putin understands the gravity of his miscalculation. He must know by now that Ukraine can’t be defeated. It’s a matter of how he navigates the exit, and more importantly, how he maintains his grip on power. The core of the issue boils down to ego, and the need to preserve a semblance of victory in the eyes of his people. The reality is, Russia is likely experiencing significant hardship, maybe even far worse than he anticipated when this whole thing began.
The situation has evolved into a war of attrition, and Ukraine’s unwavering resolve is a critical factor. Ukraine’s grit and determination, fueled by Western support, is the heart of the issue. Every strike against Ukraine strengthens their identity and their will to survive. It’s clear that the will of a nation fighting for its very existence cannot be broken. Russia can’t crush that, no matter how much territory it takes or cities it levels. This isn’t a simple military contest anymore. This is a battle of wills, and Ukraine’s desire to survive is far greater than Russia’s capacity to destroy.
From a strategic viewpoint, prolonging the war has shifted to our advantage. Russia’s economy will inevitably collapse if it is dragged on for too long. It’s possible to see the entire conflict hinging on Putin’s ego. He likely understands that a swift exit would be seen as a failure, and his position would be in peril. That is the crux of his dilemma.
The cost is just too high for Russia now. To truly “defeat” Ukraine, Russia would need to go to horrific extremes. It would require committing outright genocide, which would be a red line for the international community. Such an action would trigger consequences, with the world likely uniting to put a stop to it. The truth is, the only way to defeat Ukraine would involve actions that the world simply wouldn’t allow.
Russia is essentially fighting an industrial war, with production facilities and know-how far less than that of their opposition. The West has been supplying Ukraine, essentially funding the conflict with money from our regular economy, while Russia is putting everything they have into the war. This situation is becoming clear.
Looking at it practically, Russia has already lost. Their economy is the size of Italy’s. They face a lasting economic and demographic crisis, even if the war ended today. While Ukraine will take a while to recover, it has the West’s backing, and they will get a lot of help.
Putin likely understands that backing out now would be seen as defeat, and it might be his undoing. He might also be hoping the West will grow tired of supporting Ukraine. He is all in at this point. This will be the final act of his life.
It is true that Russia has been fighting incompetently, with corruption and poor choices weighing them down. It would have been a different matter if they actually went into “total war” mode, but even then the political considerations, especially concerning their allies, would prevent them from going to the extremes necessary for victory. Even without nukes, full-scale genocide would likely face significant opposition from allies such as China. It is fair to say, Russia simply has been fighting retardedly over the last three years.