By Matt Underwood Fearful of Russian aggression, Poles flock to military training, or rather, they’re responding, not necessarily out of fear, but with a deep historical understanding of their neighbor. The reality is nuanced, a mix of genuine concern and practical considerations, rather than simple, knee-jerk fear. The history of Poland is a testament to its resilience, having faced numerous challenges, and Russia’s historical actions cast a long shadow. It’s not just fear; it’s a prediction, a recognition of potential threats based on past behavior and current rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin. This isn’t a new phenomenon, but a heightened awareness and perhaps a more proactive stance in the current geopolitical climate.
It’s undeniable that the current situation, particularly the war in Ukraine, is a catalyst, but the full picture is more complex. While the conflict has undoubtedly raised the stakes, it’s important to remember that the Polish military has been undergoing modernization and expansion for years. The increase in participation in military training programs, and recruitment in services like Police, Fire, and Border Guard, is happening alongside the backdrop of the war. But, the reasons for this surge are also economic, and driven by things such as tax incentives and other benefits that make military service attractive to many, especially the under-26 crowd.
The numbers tell a story. In 2022, with a new military training program, approximately 12,000 people entered the program. In 2023, that number jumped to 44,000, and a similar number in 2024. It’s a significant increase, and this trend continues in 2025. This isn’t simply a case of people panicking and running to enlist. It’s a strategic move, seeing opportunities and preparing for potential futures. While the Russia-Ukraine war and broader geopolitical events are relevant, the actual reasons for training might be far more varied. The perception, however, is certainly amplified by current events.
However, it is worth noting that these numbers fluctuate throughout the year, with fewer people joining during the winter and early spring. Also, most who undergo this basic training do not immediately join active duty, but instead, become reservists, returning to civilian life and being called up for refresher training periodically. So, while a significant number are training, the immediate impact on the active-duty military is not necessarily proportionate. The emphasis on the military is increasing across all branches of the Polish government.
The narrative that Russia has set forth for itself is seen by some as insane, yet dangerous. The ambition to “restore” some semblance of a past Imperial Russia is a clear warning sign, especially to those who have lived under Russian rule. There’s an understanding of the long game and the potential risks involved. If Russia were to make an aggressive move, the response of other powers such as NATO, China, Iran, and North Korea could be a significant factor. It highlights the complexity of this, and any potential future conflict.
The idea that Putin might underestimate the resolve of the alliance is a real concern. Perhaps he believes that the United States, or other NATO members, may not necessarily step in, if Poland was targeted. Historical lessons from Hitler’s miscalculations in 1939 remind us that such miscalculations have tragic consequences. This is also where Poland’s history is essential, as an understanding of the past is key to predicting the future. The Poles know firsthand what it’s like to be under Russian influence, and they understand that this could happen again.
This has led to a sense of urgency, a feeling that it’s better to be prepared than caught off guard. The second best time to start training is, after all, today. The value of that training is not only about physical preparedness, but also about the mental fortitude that comes with it. A well-trained and prepared population can be a powerful deterrent, a signal that any aggression will be met with strong resistance. The long-term strategy is a mix of defense and deterrence, understanding that the best way to avoid conflict is to be ready for it.
The complexities of potential alliances and geopolitical dynamics are considered, and the strategic importance of Poland within the larger NATO framework is a key aspect. The role of other players, such as China and India, in the overall picture, and their potential responses, are all part of the equation. While these international relations come into play, the individual decision to train is multifaceted, a blend of patriotism, economic opportunity, and a calculated assessment of potential threats.
The commitment to military training is a calculated risk, a belief that the risks of not preparing outweigh any potential downsides. It’s a clear-eyed assessment of the world, a recognition that the best way to ensure peace is to be ready for war. The Poles, having learned from history, are not just fearing, but anticipating, and in the process, they are actively shaping their future. “Si vis pacem, para bellum”—If you want peace, prepare for war.