By John Q. Hosedrinker 
For the first time in 40 years of record-keeping, the seasonal upwelling system in the Gulf of Panama failed to occur, raising concerns about the future. This critical process, which typically brings cool, nutrient-rich waters to the surface, did not happen, leading to diminished temperature drops and productivity spikes. Researchers suspect a reduction in winds as the primary cause, though the exact reason remains unclear. Further research is underway to understand the cause and its potential consequences for fisheries and coral reefs, which depend on the upwelling.
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A steady ocean pattern just failed for the first time ever observed, and it’s got my attention. It’s a pretty big deal, and honestly, it feels like a punch to the gut. We’re talking about the predictable dance of warm and cold currents, the nutrient-rich waters that have nourished life in the Gulf of Panama for, well, as long as we’ve been keeping close tabs – at least 40 years. Then, this year, the system that reliably delivered those cool, nutrient-rich waters from January to April… didn’t. That’s never happened before in the observed record, and it’s a major signal.
This failure of the Gulf of Panama’s upwelling system could be a sign of something bigger, something more menacing on the horizon. Think of it as a potential tipping point, a point of no return. Scientists are cautious about jumping to conclusions, but the implications are chilling. Tim Lenton, an expert on tipping points (though not directly involved in the research), put it well when he said that this is a “real-life example” of a climate tipping point and that “time will tell if the failure of upwelling continues.” This event, even if it isn’t a tipping point, is another blaring alarm bell that our oceans are in serious trouble.
This situation highlights how interconnected our planet’s systems are. What happens in the ocean doesn’t stay in the ocean. These deep-water jet stream like currents, if disturbed, can impact the entire global climate, potentially triggering more extreme weather events. It makes you wonder if the unusually mild hurricane season we’ve seen lately is related. It is also worth noting that others have pointed out the potential for these events to manifest or correlate with increased frequency. Now it’s hard not to think about the future, and some of the darker predictions that have been made in the past.
The fact that this change has happened, and that we’re only observing 40 years of data, is a little alarming. Some events on this planet have scales of millions of years; 40 years, in comparison, is like a blink of an eye. Even so, a change this significant, happening this quickly, raises serious questions. I mean, 40 years ago, we weren’t even fully aware of the complexities of plate tectonics. This really underscores how inseparable the atmospheric and oceanic changes are.
This abrupt change, some of the data, is likely linked to a slowdown in winds. Once the oceans go, it’s game over. The conversation then goes to the potential for massive environmental changes, like what is at stake in the food chain. The current state of the planet is alarming because there is too much thermal energy in the ocean. This is happening in tandem with too much fresh water in the wrong places. One wonders what we will call this one. Perhaps it will be the Holocene/Anthropocene.
It’s hard not to feel a sense of dread. The datasets are complex and predicting anything in advance is near impossible. But one thing we know is that climate models have been predicting precisely this disruption of ocean currents. And here we are. It’s so easy to downplay the implications. But when you have scientists, with extensive training and access to vast quantities of data, sounding the alarm, it’s probably time to pay attention. It’s something that should be looked at closely.
This is a moment of reckoning, an indication that the planet’s systems are becoming increasingly unstable. This isn’t a theoretical issue, it’s happening right now. The question is: what are we going to do about it? Maybe it’s not too late to make some changes. Maybe.