By John Q. Hosedrinker 
In a recent statement, NATO spokesperson Allison Hart reported a violation of Estonian airspace by Russian jets on the morning of September 19th. Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland without permission, remaining for 12 minutes. NATO responded immediately to the incursion, intercepting the aircraft. The Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs subsequently summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires to protest the violation, and Kaja Kallas called the incident an “extremely dangerous provocation”.
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NATO describes MiG jets’ incursion into Estonia as “reckless Russian behaviour.” Well, that’s one way to put it, isn’t it? When you hear about a situation like this – Russian fighter jets, specifically MiGs, entering Estonian airspace – and NATO’s response, a simple “reckless” label feels…underwhelming. It’s like calling a roaring wildfire a “bit of a heatwave.”
In my view, the whole thing feels like a calculated move. It seems far more likely that the Russians are intentionally probing NATO, testing the waters, and seeing what they can get away with. This feels like the kind of action that, if you see it as a homeowner, you don’t just wag your finger at the neighbor poking around.
Frankly, the situation is ripe for escalation, and yet, NATO’s response so far has been, at best, a strongly worded email. It’s as though they’re hoping a sternly worded letter will magically solve the problem. If it were up to me, I’d go beyond the usual condemnation, and make it crystal clear: fly into our airspace, and your aircraft will be shot down. It’s a simple equation of consequences.
The fact that such actions are being treated with a shrug, and in fact allow them to be repeated over and over, is alarming. It signals to Russia that there are no real repercussions for its actions. In fact, it may embolden further provocations. Why wouldn’t they keep pushing the boundaries when the response is consistently weak? And let’s be real, Putin, with his current situation, appears to have little to lose.
The whole situation feels like a performance of sorts, an exercise in intimidation. It’s a game of cat and mouse, with Russia as the cat and NATO, well, let’s just say it’s hard to tell. It’s far more telling what the actions are actually meant to accomplish, especially if you recognize the larger picture.
The act of violating another country’s airspace, especially with armed military jets, cannot be taken lightly. It’s essentially an act of aggression, and it deserves a response that reflects that. If anything, their actions are providing more ammo to pro-Russian factions in other countries, a clever move to shake things up, and sow some doubt.
The current strategy is not only failing to deter further incidents but also creating an environment where future incursions are inevitable. The Russians aren’t going to stop until they meet resistance. The best way to stop the provocations would be to react in a way that the Russians least expect.
The response from NATO has to be stronger. A few strong words is simply not going to cut it.
If NATO really wanted to send a message, they should shoot down the jets. Not as an act of war, but a response that demonstrates the seriousness of such violations. It is a very simple matter. If you get caught in the act, then you get shot down.
And then, there’s the other bizarre details. The whole “Putin’s briefcase” situation. It’s hard to wrap your head around.
I’m just exhausted by the constant cycle of these incidents, the weak responses, and the feeling that nothing is actually being done to protect the security of these borders. It is time for NATO to actually step up and do what it was designed to do and enforce a basic level of security.