By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Despite a significant setback in the Buenos Aires provincial election, President Javier Milei has affirmed that his free-market economic policies will remain unchanged. The center-left Peronist opposition secured a decisive victory, garnering approximately 47% of the votes, while Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party received around 34%. This defeat, with the majority of votes tallied, marks a challenge to the President’s agenda.
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Milei Loses Buenos Aires Province to Peronists in Landslide
The winds of change are definitely blowing against Milei, and things are getting pretty heated. Let’s face it, Peronism has a stronghold in Buenos Aires Province, having only lost there once before. So, the fact that they won this time isn’t exactly a shocker.
Now, winning for the Peronists isn’t a complete victory for anyone, honestly. They have a reputation for corruption and haven’t exactly proven themselves to be economic wizards. It’s true that Milei hasn’t been flawless either, with some whispers of corruption swirling around his government too. However, he seemed to have a better handle on the economy, at least to a degree, managing to reduce inflation and make things a little more manageable for the average Argentinian. Ultimately, neither option is perfect, but Milei arguably offered a slightly better path, even if it’s only by a hair.
This feels like a step backward, really. Have the Peronists not done enough to cripple Argentina? This country has so much potential! What did we expect after the crypto scandals and the allegations against his sister?
It’s worth remembering that Buenos Aires Province has leaned Peronist in recent years, with Governor Axel Kicillof having a strong connection to the Kirchner era, and rejecting Milei’s proposed ten-point plan last year. There’s also the impression that Milei seems to really dislike Kicillof, possibly fueled by a desire to impose a “Kicillof tax”. Regardless of the precise details of what they’ve done, it’s clear the economy is in trouble.
The only real “win” for Milei’s government right now is the reduction in inflation. It was through the roof when he took office, and now it’s closer to the global norm. But there are other variables to consider in the economic situation. You can’t govern as though it’s just a spreadsheet of simple addition and subtraction. The dollar continues to be weak. Private unemployment is up. Mass consumption is down to a standstill. Industrial activity is in ruins. Despite two years of apparent tailwinds, investment hasn’t materialized, and the country’s risk profile keeps climbing. Added to this is the neglect of public health and education and the difficult decisions made regarding retirees and the disabled.
Milei and his supporters are the only ones who seem to believe he lifted millions out of poverty. The province, which represents 40% of Argentina’s population, clearly doesn’t share that view.
It’s pretty straightforward. Someone once said something insightful: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Milei’s victory in 2023 was partly due to the “punishment vote,” driven by a desire for change and the support from other parties. To think that the punishment vote wouldn’t eventually shift to him is perhaps naive. If Peronism is winning, it’s because there weren’t many compelling alternatives on the ballot. The combined strength of different parties would probably have exceeded what Milei’s party alone got. It’s hoped that in future elections, options outside the Peronist and Milei camps gain some traction. It’s a shame that Argentina is a country that, on paper, should be thriving, but in reality, is barely holding on. Milei seems as honest as Netanyahu. As long as there’s a new “bogeyman” like war on Communists, Muslims, immigrants, China, Brazil, gays, or other groups, they’ll keep ruling with fascism.
It’s not surprising that dirty tricks are playing a part. The fact that Milei’s troubles stem not from policy failures, but from alleged corruption involving his sister and his stance on education, science, healthcare, and support for the disabled is concerning. The country can’t seem to afford all of this.
One of the key factors is that he cut government spending and raised interest rates. People care most about their financial well-being. The Peronists have a history of corruption, but so does Milei. His sister plays a central role in his political organization and has been accused of corruption. His government can’t afford it because of debt and inflation. Argentina has a classic resource trap economy, similar to Russia’s.
One point to note is the role that legal systems seem to play. While the Anglo legal system seems to be doing better, Argentina may be suffering because of its history. Peronismo and Kirchnerismo are the reason why Argentina is in the mess that it is, and while Milei is not great, he has taken steps to improve the economy and reduce inflation. This should be a warning for anyone that wants Universal Basic Income. The people have decided and now they can take their punishment. Ironically, Buenos Aires’s mayor did accept Milei’s ten-point plan, and also comes from Macri’s party.
I was living in Argentina during this campaign and saw the peso swing drastically. The inflation was absolutely devastating. The people were fed up and probably threw a hail mary.
Argentina still has a ridiculous inflation, and I bet the situation will get worse. Cutting government spending is important, but not if it removes funding from essential areas like education, science, and health. These are the pillars of a country. Despite what he sold himself as, he’s just another of those cronies. People are starting to see past the promises.
It was a bit of everything mixed together. It was definitely a choice between bad options. Milei sold himself as someone from the outside instead of the same corrupt people ruining Argentina. It was definitely bullshit, but it was still better than to choose the ones who are 100% corrupt and incompetent.