By John Q. Hosedrinker 
MI6 chief Richard Moore stated that Vladimir Putin miscalculated the war in Ukraine, underestimating Ukrainian resistance and overplaying his hand. Moore believes there is no evidence Putin is open to genuine peace talks, suggesting he is instead stalling while falsely claiming progress. The MI6 director accused Putin of jeopardizing Russia’s future and accelerating its decline through the ongoing conflict. These comments were made in Istanbul as Moore announced new MI6 strategies to utilize the dark web for intelligence gathering, marking one of his final public appearances before retiring.
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“Putin has bitten off more than he can chew,” a sentiment echoed by the outgoing MI6 chief, succinctly captures the current state of affairs in Ukraine. It’s a stark assessment of the Russian leader’s miscalculations, highlighting the underestimation of Ukrainian resilience and the broader implications of the conflict. The initial assumption of a swift victory, a walkover reminiscent of past interventions, has crumbled in the face of determined resistance.
This miscalculation is, to put it bluntly, huge. The MI6 director wasn’t mincing words, and the implications of the situation are immense. Putin, it seems, was operating on faulty intelligence, fed perhaps by those eager to please. This led to a belief that a swift occupation of Ukraine would be easily accomplished. This contrasts sharply with reality. The ongoing conflict has revealed the limitations of the Russian military, the strength of Ukrainian resolve, and the unified response from the Western world. The damage inflicted on Russia, regardless of the war’s ultimate outcome, will linger for decades.
The former MI6 chief’s words also paint a picture of a leader mortgaging his nation’s future for a personal legacy. It’s a powerful indictment, suggesting that Putin’s actions are driven by a desire to cement his place in history, even at the cost of significant damage to his own country. This perspective raises crucial questions about the motivations behind the invasion and the long-term consequences for Russia. The oligarchs have a role to play in this too.
The impact of this war is already being felt within Russia, and the future may be challenging. The soldiers returning home are likely to bring back with them a host of problems that will need careful management. The narcissism of those at the top is, as always, their own worst enemy.
The unexpected strength of NATO, the US, and the world in general, in response to Russia’s aggression, should be counted as another of Putin’s blunders. There was clearly a misjudgment of how the Western world would respond. The coordinated sanctions, military aid, and diplomatic isolation have proven to be significant hurdles for the Kremlin. The situation has become, to put it mildly, a very large problem.
The belief that this conflict would resemble a repeat of Crimea or a quick land grab, where the Ukrainian forces were either unable or unwilling to fight back, quickly proved wrong. The realities of modern warfare, particularly the devastating impact of drones, have further complicated the battlefield. The T-14 Armata tank, once touted as a symbol of Russian military prowess, failed to perform and was withdrawn. The SU-57 fighter jets, designed to provide air superiority, have remained out of reach of Ukraine. All of which has exposed weaknesses in Russian capabilities.
It’s also been suggested that Putin may have anticipated a less unified response from the West, perhaps hoping to exploit divisions and hesitation. He might have gambled on a weakened or fractured NATO alliance and misread the global mood. The strong and decisive response of the international community has further complicated his strategic calculus, highlighting the global implications of the conflict.
The suggestion that Donald Trump played a role is an interesting one. The idea that some of the timing and strategy was based on the assumption of Trump’s continued presidency, and a reduced US commitment to supporting Ukraine, is a thought-provoking conjecture. If that’s the case, then this calculation also failed.
The shift to drone warfare is a significant change. The impact of FPV drones is worth considering. This modern approach to warfare is certainly creating new pressures on armies around the world, and changing the dynamic of battle.