By John Q. Hosedrinker 
According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no incentive to end the war in Ukraine or negotiate a peace agreement. Merz stated that Putin will only consider talks when it benefits him, and he currently perceives advantages in continuing the conflict, including territorial gains. To shift this dynamic, Merz advocated for economic pressure, particularly by exhausting Russia’s war economy through measures like tariffs on countries trading with Russia. He believes this is the primary method to force Russia to seek a resolution.
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The core idea, as articulated by Germany’s Merz, is that Vladimir Putin currently has no compelling reason to end the war in Ukraine or negotiate a peace deal. It’s a stark assessment, but the evidence seems to support it. We can see that despite the huge costs in time, money, resources, and human lives—both Russian soldiers and Ukrainian civilians—Putin appears unfazed. The war’s toll includes widespread death and serious injury for Russian soldiers, economic damage from sanctions, and individual hardship for Russians. Yet, the advantages Putin perceives, especially with the support he’s garnering from countries like China and India, outweigh these drawbacks from his perspective.
The question is, what are these advantages that keep him going? First and foremost, the primary goal is to secure territorial gains. Secondly, he sees maintaining the conflict as a strategic move. It aligns with the vision of rebuilding the Russian Empire, even if the country’s economy is suffering as a result. Any negotiation is done only to his advantage.
The war’s impact is significant, even if Putin is managing to mask its true extent. Russian progress in Ukraine has been limited, and the situation could become precarious for Russia if Ukraine holds its ground. The potential for internal strife within Russia seems to be the most likely catalyst for change, with the elite and certain factions possibly turning against Putin, but at the moment there is no sign of this.
Putin’s stance is not a surprise. He will only negotiate when it is to his advantage, and continuing the war currently offers him what he perceives as strategic benefits. He aims to expand Russia’s influence and redraw the geopolitical map. However, his approach is causing economic strain and leading to internal discontent. The poor of Russia, drawn by the promise of higher pay and seeing their lives as having little value, are the most likely to support the war effort, making the reality of ending this war more complicated than ever.
Several factors need to be considered. While Russia’s economy is undoubtedly suffering, Putin seems willing to absorb these losses. The hope that economic pressure alone will force him to the table is a miscalculation. He relies on the support of his allies, and, as long as they are providing support, he has the ability to carry on. The belief that negotiations will bring peace is, sadly, a misguided one, as Russia has repeatedly shown that its answer to such propositions is to inflict more harm on civilians.
One of the biggest fears regarding this situation is that Putin has no way back. A million soldiers are gone, and nothing gained. It might be that the only way out is when somebody internally within Russia decides it is time for Putin to be removed from power.