Japan will not recognise a Palestinian state for now, and that’s the news according to the Asahi newspaper. It seems that the Land of the Rising Sun is taking a wait-and-see approach, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even plans to skip a meeting on the subject during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly. It’s worth noting that this position puts Japan in a bit of a different camp compared to some of its allies, especially those in the Group of Seven.

Japan’s hesitance places it alongside the United States, Israel’s closest ally, in the non-recognition corner. This stance seems to reflect a more cautious approach, echoing concerns voiced by officials from Germany and Italy, who apparently believe immediate recognition could be “counterproductive.” It definitely raises the question of whether countries promising recognition, but with certain conditions, will actually follow through, especially if those conditions are unlikely to be met anytime soon.

There’s a sense that Japan doesn’t have any pressing domestic political incentives to take a side in this matter, and with the focus on the role of Hamas, the issue seems to be very complex. The prevailing sentiment is that symbolic gestures, such as simply recognizing a Palestinian state, are insufficient. The argument is that the only things that might make a difference are “hard action,” like economic sanctions, or maybe, more direct actions.

However, the context within which this decision is made is very important. The current situation involving Hamas certainly throws a wrench into the works. The core issue revolves around the fact that Hamas is in control, and, in the opinion of some, the very idea of recognizing Palestine is doomed to failure, precisely because it would involve Hamas disarming.

The implications of a nation’s government are important as well. There are those who see this as a sensible, pragmatic approach, prioritizing national interests above all else. There’s a perception that Japan is making a strategic choice and the decision reflects Japan’s willingness to align itself with the United States, which has also declined to recognize a Palestinian state.

The situation on the ground definitely plays a huge role in this. There is no real hope for a Palestinian state while Hamas is actively engaged in a hot war. Until Hamas demonstrates accountability and ceases its aggression, the international community is likely to remain hesitant. It’s worth noting that even those who criticize Israel acknowledge that Hamas’ actions are a significant obstacle.

And that recognition, without real action, might be more about political posturing than actually helping the situation. The conditions attached to potential recognition seem to be set up as a way of avoiding actually taking action, while still being able to express solidarity.

Ultimately, Japan’s stance, as reported by Asahi, reflects a complex and sensitive situation. With no easy answers, and several important factors to consider, Japan’s decision to hold off on recognition is probably not so surprising.