By John Q. Hosedrinker 
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has accused President Zelenskyy of an “anti-Hungarian obsession” amid escalating tensions. This response follows a period of worsening relations between the two countries, fueled by Budapest’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession and recent actions, including the bombing of the Druzhba oil pipeline. In response to entry bans imposed by Hungary on a Ukrainian commander, Ukraine reciprocated with bans on Hungarian military officials. Szijjártó further claimed that Ukraine has pursued an “anti-Hungarian policy” for a decade.
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Spy drones flew into Ukraine from Hungary, Zelenskyy says, and this immediately raises a cascade of questions and concerns. It’s a bold claim, and one that, if true, has serious implications for both Ukraine and the broader international community. The very idea of drones – tools of modern espionage and warfare – originating from a NATO member state and entering Ukrainian airspace is a breach of trust, to put it mildly. It throws a wrench into the delicate balance of diplomacy and alliances that currently exists.
I wonder about the extent to which this type of activity has been happening. It’s easy to imagine that incidents like this, or worse, have been going on for some time, perhaps even for years. This brings into question the efficacy of border controls, intelligence gathering, and the overall commitment of nations to uphold international law. The potential for this type of covert operation has likely increased dramatically with the advancement of technology, making it easier to deploy, control, and collect information using drones.
I wonder what the people of the future will say was the first decisive act of this war. It’s almost as if we’re in a World War scenario, but one where no one wants to officially declare it. A scenario where it is only being fought under the cover of darkness. The question of a “first act” is difficult to pinpoint. Was it the initial invasion? Or perhaps, the clandestine actions that preceded it, like these drone flights?
It’s easy to see how the news will reach the EU and European leaders. Hungary is poised to receive a strongly worded letter from the EU and other European leaders. Hungary’s position within NATO and the EU, while complicated, will undoubtedly be questioned. The situation with Hungary feels like an “I’m not touching you” situation, which is interesting in this situation. The historical ties and geopolitical leanings of Hungary, often seen as being in Russia’s orbit, will come under renewed scrutiny.
It’s important, however, not to jump to conclusions. It’s possible that this was the act of rogue actors or individuals operating independently, perhaps even acting under the influence of Russia. It’s equally important to note that just because Hungary appears compromised does not mean that it is a Hungarian state decision. This is not to absolve Hungary of its other questionable actions and decisions.
It’s also relevant to note that Hungary has been infiltrating Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region with spies. The aim of the spies was allegedly to gather information on military facilities, identify weaknesses in defenses, and monitor the sentiment of the local population. This sounds like an attempt to gather information for a potential incursion on the side of Russia.
The potential for escalation is high, particularly if Russia perceives this as a sign of weakness or an opportunity to further destabilize the region. The consequences of a wider conflict are immense, and the international community must act cautiously but decisively to prevent further escalation. There is a possibility that a world war will break out and many individual wars.
If the USA defends Taiwan, the world may experience multiple wars. North Korea may move to attack South Korea and the Middle East may implode. Venezuela may go for Guyana in South America. Eritrea will go for Ethiopia in Africa. The US military could be at its weakest due to staff changes and is something to consider. The Korean War was closer to a world war than the war in Ukraine.
It’s clear that no EU country has the drone problem under control. There are worries about the weapons or any “bad shit” these drones may be carrying. There is no good outcome for Russia, and shooting the drones down may seem like a simple solution. But this would be breaking international law.