Under German law, contracts exceeding €25 million require parliamentary approval, revealing a preference for European industry in major defense procurements. While the United States has secured contracts, such as those for Boeing’s P-8A torpedoes and Raytheon’s Patriot missiles, the total value of U.S.-led buys is only around €6.8 billion, approximately 8% of the total plan. Germany, historically a major buyer of U.S. defense goods, is now shifting its focus toward European suppliers.

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Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons, and the implications are significant. The decision to prioritize European industry in this massive military procurement drive, allocating a mere 8% to American weapons, represents a noteworthy shift. This is a direct consequence of several factors, including a growing desire for strategic autonomy within Europe, a loss of trust in the reliability of the United States as a supplier, and the actions of former US leadership that actively undermined the US’s position in the global arms market.

The repercussions of this plan are substantial. For the United States, it signifies a potential decline in a lucrative market, particularly in the arms industry. The previous administration’s pressure on European countries to purchase US arms, combined with actions perceived as unreliable or transactional, has paved the way for this shift. The focus on European-made weapons fosters local industry growth and reduces reliance on foreign suppliers, a move that resonates with the broader sentiment of self-sufficiency.

Europe’s move towards greater defense independence is a complex phenomenon, not solely driven by a desire to spend more on defense, as it was previously demanded by the United States. It’s about regaining control over its own security needs. The increasing emphasis on homegrown solutions and collaboration within Europe underscores this trend. The choice to invest in European manufacturers is strategic, safeguarding against potential disruptions in supply or political interference. The US can’t be trusted to do the right thing and will always put its own interests first, which is fair enough, but does not mean it should be trusted.

The recent London arms expo offered a glimpse into the future of European defense, with a strong focus on capabilities designed to counter modern threats like drones and missiles, and crucially, to defend against a major conflict without direct US air support. The shift in strategy away from reliance on US technology to focusing on European options, reflects a significant change in thinking. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has served as a stark reminder of the importance of self-reliance in defense.

The impact on the United States extends beyond lost revenue. The erosion of trust, particularly in the reliability of the US as a partner and supplier, will have long-term consequences. The willingness to prioritize domestic production over US-made arms reflects a profound lack of faith in the consistency of American foreign policy. This move is not just about immediate financial gains or losses but the strategic independence of Europe.

The German decision is also a nod to the shift in the geopolitical landscape, where the US is no longer seen as the sole reliable security guarantor. The actions of the previous administration and other external factors have created an environment where relying on one source of arms is seen as a risk. The new plan reflects a long-term view, recognizing that domestic defense capabilities are crucial for national security.

This decision is about Europe’s desire to be in control of its own defense. The US has long advocated for increased defense spending from its European allies, but the shift towards European manufacturers highlights a deeper desire for self-determination. The US’s stance on defense spending seemed to be an attempt to bully countries into buying American goods.

The move also suggests that some European nations have come to view the US as an unreliable partner, especially as the United States seemed to be a transactional supplier, willing to prioritize its own interests over those of its allies. If the US can no longer be relied upon to supply its allies with the weapons they need, there’s a strong argument for looking elsewhere.

The push for European nations to increase defense spending has evolved into a drive for true strategic independence. This is a direct result of former US leadership’s policies and the broader shifts in the geopolitical landscape. While the US will still benefit from the 8% allocation, the overall message is clear: Europe is taking control of its own defense.