By John Q. Hosedrinker 
The European Commission is planning to leverage EU Council conclusions from December 2023 to justify using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. This would involve a shift in sanctions rules, moving from unanimity to a qualified majority vote, with the aim of utilizing the interest accrued on these assets. The proposal will need widespread support from member states, facing potential opposition from countries like Hungary and Slovakia. Furthermore, concerns from Belgium regarding legal repercussions from Russia and exposure of Euroclear could pose a challenge.
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Brussels is clearly eyeing a way to isolate Hungary, and the potential of sending billions in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine is a significant motivator. It’s a complex situation, and it all boils down to navigating a web of EU rules and Hungarian defiance. It’s a dance of legal maneuvering, political pressure, and the underlying question of what it truly means to be a member of the European Union.
The core issue seems to be finding a legal loophole that allows the EU to bypass Hungary’s veto power. Hungary has been a thorn in the side of many EU nations, particularly when it comes to supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia. The idea is that if the EU can find a way to classify certain decisions as requiring a “qualified majority” vote rather than unanimous agreement, they can effectively sideline Hungary and proceed with their plans. This is where those EU legal experts come into play, desperately trying to devise a scheme.
The fact that Hungary has consistently voted against measures supported by the majority of the EU is a source of immense frustration. The fear is that Hungary is becoming a proxy for Russian interests within the Union, much like some see Serbia as a puppet state. Many feel that Hungary’s actions are fundamentally at odds with the values and goals of the EU, but they have no real mechanism for expulsion.
The historical context is also relevant, given Hungary’s complex relationship with both Western and Eastern powers. There’s a lot of historical baggage, the aftermath of the World Wars and the failed revolution, and the influence of post-communist sentiment, leading to a sense of resentment towards the West. This has also made the Hungarian political landscape more susceptible to influence from abroad. This is on top of the fact that there’s no formal mechanism for the EU to kick out a member. There’s no legal “eject” button. The closest mechanism would be to essentially create a new EU 2.0 without Hungary and essentially start from scratch.
This is where the question of those frozen Russian assets comes in. Hungary signed a statement saying that Russia’s assets should be frozen until Russia ceases its aggression and provides reparations. However, this doesn’t automatically give the EU the power to act. The trick is to find a way to authorize the use of those assets for the benefit of Ukraine without Hungary’s consent. This is the heart of the “loophole” they are desperately searching for.
There’s also a very real debate about what Hungary’s role even *is*. It’s not simply an ally, they are an EU member, with all the rights and responsibilities that entails. However, they also have all the voting rights, including the right to block important decisions.
The legal and political landscape within the EU is complicated, to say the least. The Vienna Convention on Treaties is a factor, which provides a way to deal with a breach of the treaty with the agreement of every other signatory. But even that requires a consensus which could be difficult to achieve. And the whole thing is made more difficult with the presence of Slovakia, which apparently is aligned with Hungary and can veto any attempt to exclude them.
The EU, it’s important to remember, isn’t a country like the United States. It’s a complex organization, governed by a web of treaties and agreements. Changing those rules is a slow and arduous process, involving multiple stages of agreement.
The future is also full of uncertainty. There’s a real possibility of a change in government in Hungary during the upcoming elections in 2026. If a more pro-EU government were to come into power, the whole situation could shift. The ultimate goal is to convince Hungary to change course and act in line with the interests of the EU as a whole, rather than to force them out. The core of the EU is trade and freedom of movement, and removing Hungary entirely would damage this.